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Re: Nice try at spin, Cptspr, but it comes up woefully shallow.Thead Nice spin on your part. You know enough of the past to be dangerous but you don't really seem to understand the fundamentals of the business units and their potential value. As a starter you might try to put a value on each and see what you come up with. I think Kirk realized that the ECC model wasn't working more than two years ago. It made more sense to partner later in the process. Harvest capital stopped investing and Mauney eventually moved to ZIOP. Kirk also realized that ZIOP and Merck weren't cutting it. XON was spending a lot of money on tools which were not effectively being used to address the cancer market, so he saw an opportunity to do it internally with Helen and he took it. This all came to a head in 2018 When ZIOP wanted to divorce from XON and Kirk leveraged this as opportunity to take back most of the cancer market. In fact, Helen had already developed some exciting opportunities that would have essentially gone to ZIOP at no charge under the previous structure. With ZIOP relinquishing its part of the Merck rights to XON, Kirk now had the opportunity to buy back the Merck deal. They were able to buy it back for less than the value of one target. This of course changed the business model. Besides giving up the preferred and the stock to Merck, ZIOP and Merck were no longer covering some of the expenses. I think Kirk had assumed that they would reach a deal with a major oil company but that ended in Feb and the stock collapsed because of that and the "on going concern issue" that it contributed to. Kirk would now have to reduce expenses and sell off or partner same assets. This strategy also makes sense as XON was selling dramatically under the value of its assets and also from a stock perspective Precigen was not being valued correctly due to being part of a conglomerate. Precigen is clearly worth more than than the current value of XN. The checkpoint product addresses a current market of over $15B. Since Precigins checkpoint is multi-function(more than PD-1) the potential market is even larger. If approved this product alone is worth north of $20B. Just a 5% chance puts the current value at $400 million. There are a lot of interested partners. The two CART products also adress markets worth north of $1B each. A 10% chance here(already have IND) has a value north of $200 million,. If we find that the CART cells expand, the odds of success improve substantially as well as the number of potential targets. The tools, cancer vaccines, the autoimmune opportunities and autoimmune opportunities are worth another $300 million. The heart therapy has essentially been proven safe and efficacious. The best dosing can still be defined but the fact that a patient can be dosed multiple times makes this not much of an issue. This is a huge market. It has to be worth more $300 million right now. ActoBio has 4 therapies in trials and more to come using the the same platform. Easily worth $200 million. You are saying that Energy was given away. The valuation with Dewhurst however is not that different from a major oil company deal. Most would have put that deal at $250 million contributed to purchase 50% of a joint venture. There would be further milestones for improvements in yields and molecules. The valuation of XON's piece of the partnership would not have been that different from Dewhirst, between $200 million and $250 million, except XON retains 70% of the equity and has also taken care of the Energy partners. XON can sell the other 20% at much higher price later. Also under the oil company scenario, XON would have to pay their 50% of the milestone payments out of the the partnership, some of the milestones would have gone to the Energy partners and XON would have to a continue $40 million yearly expense to achieve them. |
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