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Msg  47579 of 47891  at  8/16/2022 9:49:44 AM  by

meishairwin

The following message was updated on 8/16/2022 9:50:11 AM.

 In response to msg 47578 by  fmrick
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Re: Pricing/Valuation

Three things to keep in mind besides the value an approval for oncology would bring -- and the timing for that is quite uncertain; could be a Phase IV (which would be sooner) or FDA could require another Phase III (value realization would take much longer):
 
(1) Neutrolin is a possible platform for other applications: wound care, sutures, etc.  Remember the hilarious (not) R&D day Khoso has early-on in his tenure in which this possibility was a major focus...only 5 years ago! 
 
If there's potential here, it will require more R&D and possibly additional clinical trials.  But, there could be significant upside value here.
 
(2) The most likely acquirer would be a larger pharmaceutical company looking for products with strong, predictable cash flow that either (a) have lengthy and strong IP protection, or (b) not likely to have directly competitive products for a number of years.
 
(3) Pharma companies are not looking to buy other companies in order to generate the greatest capital gain, although they surely work hard to buy at the lowest price possible.  For that reason, CRMD has to get to a point where the value of its products and platform is significantly de-risked and where more than one Pharma would find their product/ platform attractive in context of their distribution and R&D assets.
 
Given the above, I continue to believe CRMD will not be sold until two things occur:
 
(1) Commercial uptake of Defencath in both in-patient and out-patient HD is clear (~6-12 months after launch).
 
(2) Path to oncology approval is clear (i.e., either Phase IV or Phase III).
 
I don't see both of the above occurring before mid-2024. 
 


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