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Msg  47578 of 47891  at  8/16/2022 9:12:09 AM  by

fmrick

The following message was updated on 8/16/2022 9:14:58 AM.

 In response to msg 47577 by  mrices1.1
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Re: Pricing/Valuation

 
Also, there's high probability Oncology will be approved , more than doubling HD and In-Patient revenue. By that point we will likely have been sold, but I hope/believ at a very big multiple of current pps. Don't want to sound like a cheerleader as I know how long this has taken, but hopefully it will be worth it.
 I to love the work Chez put into this.
 
Consider this possibility-  The company never tells us the FDA has accepted the re-file.  The first thing we hear- One morning we wake up to a PR at 7 am that the drug has been approved.  I hope they DON'T take that path.  I hope they let us know when the NDA is considered re-filed and tell us the classification.  At Class 1, new investors will have less than 60 days to get in.  Once re-filed, the FDA could move quicker and that 60 days could become just a few weeks.  The stock would explode up at that point.  Then announce the approval.
 
As for the company being sold, I don't see that before approval, not if this management is smart.  The multiple you will get is not going to be what the company WILL BE worth, if we are trading at the current levels.  Remember, a buyer of the company is buying it on potential, and they are going to want that gain on THEIR books, after they buy it.  Plus, most biotech buyouts are in the range of 100-300% premium of the MC of the stock (stock price x outstanding shares) in the time just before the sale becomes public.  And that 300% number is very rare.  Here, I'd expect something in the 200% premium range. 
 
My hope is that they become much more open, release information as it comes available, and we move back to the high teens or low twenties BEFORE the approval comes.  That could come at any time in the next six months. 
 
After approval, with the stock price firmly in the $20-40 range, a nice BO at $60-80 would be fine with me.  It would also be fair to any buyer of the company.  
 
 


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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
47579 Re: Pricing/Valuation meishairwin 10 8/16/2022 9:49:44 AM
47580 Re: Pricing/Valuation ashtonb22 4 8/16/2022 10:16:15 AM




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