Up until CMS notes came out I think most were assuming around $19/vial price - although I'm not sure where that # came from - did CRMD provide earlier or was that from some analyst

 

In the call they confirmed NTAP In-Pateint wac pricing of $1,462.50 x 3 vials = $4,387.50/patient. (wac = wholesale acquisition cost)  While that is list price before sales discounts, rebates etc, it is still incredible!  A quick search of average wac to list price differential for major drug companies shows an average 50% reduction, depending on drug and channel... https://www.drugchannels.net/2021/04/gross-to-net-bubble-update-net-prices.html

 

If that 50% held for Defencath for hospitals, list would be $700/vial or $2100 per in-patient treatment.  Let's assume dialysis centers would pay a lot less due to volume discounts, so maybe a 75% discount vs wac or $365/vial for dialysis. 

 

CRMD has provided the following estimates in terms of potential market opportunity:

In Patient: 2.5M x 3 vials

Dialysis: 80 M  x 1 Vial

Oncology/TPN:  "several hundred million" vials

 

That's market potential so lower that by a lot to get to market penetration by channel.  Use whatever conservative assumptions you want.  Here's a start

In-Patient: 30% mkt = 750k patients x 3 vials x $700 = 1.6B

Dialysis: 25% mkt  = 20M visits x $365/vial (75% discount from wac) = $7.3B

Oncology/TPN: 25% @ $365 =  $22.8B

 

You'll see no matter how aggressive CRMD wants to be in discounting wac and no matter how low mkt penetration is, the  revenue potential is astounding.  Based on assumptions above and using 5x multiple of revenue, In-Patient alone could make CRMD an $8B company which translates to $195/share!  Ridiculous right?   So be more conservative in your assumptions - it doesn't matter.  Based on a wac of $1462.5, Defencath is a blockbuster drug.  No matter how much they discount, no matter what low penetration they achieve, the numbers are too good to believe.  

 

Analysts have done their own volume projections, but if they were using $19/vial those revenue estimates are out the window.  The big change from just a few weeks ago is the wac price of $1462 (vs $19) - that is way, way, way higher than I think anyone was assuming, and that may be why we are going to continue to see strong pps growth in the month ahead regardless of PUDFA date.

 

Pls check my math.  Am I missing something?