Re: TED results from Veridian
In general if a drug (other than oncology or vaccines) goes to P3 trials, there is about a 63% success rate to approval. I'm sure the small sampling size of the Veridian P1/P2 study was also cherry picked, which will be harder to achieve in a broader sample.
Lets say they have a 50% chance of getting approval based on standard norms, the drug would still have to prove to be as efficacious and safe as T. If there is no significant increased benefit to using V's drug over T, it will be very difficult for them to penetrate the market (as physicians will usually not switch unless they are convinced there is exceptional additional benefit).
Discounting the possibility that V could get approval and capture some of the T's market, it would still represent substantial revenues for T.
I am more looking forward to the many clinical programs other than K and T, that HZNP has in progress. I still maintain there is no publicly traded biotech company that is as well placed as HZNP for success (and this potential is vastly underappreciated as always).
Lots of stuff gonna happen in 2023, and I'm excited. As always do your own DD.