Price targets for long-term shareholders | HZNP Message Board Posts

Horizon Pharma, Inc.

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Msg  1766 of 1908  at  1/19/2020 11:04:57 AM  by


The following message was updated on 1/19/2020 11:06:42 AM.

 In response to msg 1765 by  Karabec
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Re: Price targets for long-term shareholders

I've likely been the longest term investor in HZNP on the board, having purchased original shares at $4.50 and then picking up more when the stock was cut in half to $2.25. For the most part I have been a buy and hold on HZNP, although I did warn and get out at $25 when the stock was tumbling on political risk,and then bought back in when things stabilized. I also sold again at around $9.50 after the company lied to investors about increased earning projections, only to almost immediately come out with information on PC contract underperformance. I then bought back at $15 after I felt the sting was gone, and Bio prospects strong.

For the most part I've been bullish though, betting on TW and his vision for the company (what attracted me to HZNP in the first place). He has not been infallible, and the DEPO fiasco could have ruined this stock (barely holding on to life now as ASRT). We definitely dodged that bullet. Mike (by all reports now deceased) from the Yahoo board warned strongly against having anything to do with opioids, and was proven absolutely correct.

I didn't hold the FA Actimmune fail against the company, as I was rooting for those tragic kids with the disease, and there was a moral obligation to see the trial through. The risk reward of success was awesome, but it didn't pan out (although it is a good lesson against using anecdotal evidence to support potential outcomes - substantially different now with the anecdotal info on K combo results, also supported by an ongoing study).

What is different about the HZNP I originally bought into (a PC company with two reformulated generic drugs) and the company now, is that it is a true bio pharm with amazing orphan properties (again thanks to TW's vision). There is an article out today about how HZNP is undervalued by 37% using a version of NPV assessment. I think their model is skewed to undervalue the company's future earnings potential by a great deal.

HZNP is now the stock that I strongly believed it could (and would) become under TW's leadership. My mantra was (and still is) that HZNP is the next HZNP. After all the trials (hah) and tribulations the research, acquisitions and business model are paying off handsomely. Nothing is without risk (even visiting Manila last week a volcano unexpectedly erupted 40km away - back in Hawaii now but family remains as my son is in school and things have probably stabilized). I lost a fortune on ELAN after Tysabri was approved by the FDA and I went from heavily invested, to insanely bullish,and then PML materialized in some patients shutting down the treatment (eventually this was rectified with tests to determine vulnerability, but not before the company was fatally wounded). Worst 3:30 AM phone call of my life from Charles Schwab (6 hour different during DST, New York to Hawaii).

My assessment of current HZNP PPS is that it is a starting point, finally about to break all time highs. The company is 100% different from when I originally bought it (ok, maybe 80% different), and is finally seen by the street as an exciting bio pharm. If I had free capitol (which I don't as the art business is capitol intensive), I would be considering increasing my position here rather than contemplating a sale. Everyone needs to invest based on their own individual perspective, DD, risk tolerance and strategy (if it is to sell or reduce at a certain point).

PPS has been on fire since the last hard fall, up over 300%. As they say (who are they?), you never go broke by taking a profit, so an exit strategy is applauded for those already believing their investment sufficiently rewarded. I'm still of the buy and hold mind, believing the company to be in its nascent stage of fully realizing potential and value of its two key assets, K and T. As I used to say in the Navy, "we shall see (sea?)."

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