Re: Sold NRE June 10s
price over $9? thats a 50%+ price bump from current in 7 months. assuming they dont raise the div, that would result in a div yield less than 5% and it would bring it on par yield-wise with the vnq. given its make up i cant see how clns is ever going to yield less than the vnq. and especially in a rising rates environment i just dont see that happening for clns anytime on the horizon. i can see $7 or $7.5, maybe if they absolutely crush it every quarter. but $9 seems a real stretch given how low they reset their guidance/yield to last q. unless they suddenly start raising the div i think clns at $9 would be a short sellers dream opportunity.
i have nibbled at clns calls over the past couple weeks (short term may and june 6s) just as a pure spec play for next earnings. i likely will never own the common again with current management still in charge (still own some preferred though). but like your thought, best case scenario is they "kitchen sinked it" last q and there isnt anything worse going forward. hard to be any worse at least...