In November of 2019 Alangrossfarm posted the following with a link to a high level summary of OMER. Brett on Seeking Alpha recently also posted an article about the investment thesis of OMER. With all due respect to Brett, Alan for my money is the most informed OMER analyst. Both analysis hit the mark, with one big difference is Brett, as he often does, offers an option strategy for those looking for an investment play.
From a risk standpoint, this analysis seems to be largely intact, nothing has necessarily changed as much as the risks are more nearer term. CMS news, pass-through status, the opioid legislation, funding requirements, etc. The trials continued to move forward, albeit more slowly surely due to COVID, but the rolling BLA has also advanced to near completion. There has been no negative news, unless you are of the opinion that no news is bad news.
Omer still 'enjoys' large short interest, and it remains to be seen how the large short positions correlate to post-news PPS. CMS news any day, No-Pain Legislation, Pass Through news for Omidria in October all on deck. Bad news there can force the hand of OMER to raise funds.. On the other hand, good news from any of these events, can pop OMER PPS, perhaps significantly. IMO, and maybe others, OMERS ultimate fate will lie with success of OMS-721, Narsoplimab and the 3 on-going Phase 3 trials. However, the importance of Omidria acting as the fuel (needed cash) for these trials/drug cannot be underestimated.
Does Greg have his button on a partnership ready to go if Omidria runs into a wall? Does the fact that they have not gone to the secondary market now, (before a possible crash pending bad news) a reflection on how confident he is in the fate of Omidria (OMS, NO-PAIN, Pass Through status)?
Without Omidria re-attaining its pass through revenue stream of old, OMER may face dilutive secondaries, or may need to partner away part of its assets/revenue.
The next 3 months (if not weeks) will shed the light on all of this.