Re: Lupus nephritis
I wish I could give you a "Biotech Jim" or an "Agrossfarm" scientific response. You guys are awesome and I always appreciate your feedback. As I mentioned, I was intrigued by the Lupus Nephritis comment with respect to OMER as I've owned OMER for three years as well as AUPH and a few others. Cowen released a report that I saw a piece of on Twitter today(@tomsilver39) that said based on phase 3 results, they believe the company is highly de-risked and expect an approval in early 2021. Target price is $30. Cowen sees this potentially as a $1 Billion a year in revenue drug based on 20-25% of the Lupus market. You are correct about patent running only through 2027 but there are those that believe that AUPH might get an extension to 2037 due to "dose adjustment protocol" that improved responses during the phase 3 trial. AUPH announced that the FDA accepted the NDA on May 28 and hope to hear back from FDA within next 30 days. It had been widely speculated that AUPH's largest shareholder(Iljin) was pushing for them to sell the company last fall before the Phase 3 data readout. The stock fluctuated before phase 3, going down to under $5 before getting great results in the trial and going as high as $25 before coming down to earth in the $16 range today. The question that most who follow the stock ask is will they sell or go it alone. The new CEO has been coy, saying that they are ready to go it alone while mentioning that not only himself, but the board has broad M&A experience. They also have a Dry Eye drug that will announce results by the end of 2020 and they are comparing that to a Restasis and that's a pretty big market. So, although nothing is assured, I think approval will happen. The IP decision(2027 or 2036) will obviously be huge. To a lesser degree, the dry eye candidate will also be important to AUPH's total value. I believe they will sell by early 2021. Good luck to all OMER longs. I've been here three years and believe good things will happen here as well.