valuation thoughts?
I am trying to figure out whether there is a defensible case to be made for CIE equity having any value once this whole process runs its course. Obviously the bond pricing suggests that equity will be worthless, but on the other hand NP is a very good asset, and Anchor is potentially worth something as well (I know that CIE would say that Shenandoah and Angola have value too, but there is so much uncertainty around those assets that it's hard to ascribe any value to them right now).
There is so much leverage here that everything depends on what per bbl valuation you plug in- CIE talks about $5/bbl up to $10/bbl, which would suggest an equity price of anywhere from $15-$100+, but then Credit Suisse says it can't make the field economics at NP and Anchor worth at anything close to $5, and ascribes $2.50/bbl which would render equity worthless. Quite a binary play.
This is all additionally complicated by the fact that there aren't really any good recent comparable sales to look at in the GoM. APC bought Freeport’s GoM assets last fall for $13.50/boe BUT those assets include producing fields (75K boepd, I think) and they were close to existing APC infrastructure. NP isn't close to anything.
Any thoughts on how to arrive at a defensible $/bbl number that would leave something for equity holders here?