What does TCRT have to show to be a $5 stock? | TCRT Message Board Posts


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Msg  120070 of 122254  at  8/28/2022 10:21:14 AM  by

Mabel

The following message was updated on 9/11/2022 2:53:42 PM.

 In response to msg 120068 by  Riskyinvestor
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Re: What does TCRT have to show to be a $5 stock?

some interesting points. I will share my opinions based on each one.
 
"In a little more than 4 weeks, we will get the first presentation of trial results for SB TCRs in treating solid tumors. Of course, it looks like only data on the first patient will be presented." 
 
I agree that it appears only data on 1 patient will be presented. Back six months ago when the BOB posters were predicting a handful of patient data prior to the end of August, I had mentioned that i was expecting at max 1-2 and 4-6 by year end. Even my low expectations appear to have been overly optimistic. I am somewhat nonplussed why at least the data on 2 patients are not being presented by end of September. The start of trials always seem to tend on the slow side and TCRT's trial is more than holding its own in this regard.  
 
"I believe TCRT can trade to 5 if:" 
 
In a market environment in which you still see some ridiculous price movements that are not based on fundamentals, you do not need to qualify a rise in the pps with reasons. Even in an increasing difficult overall market, head scratching pps movements are still occurring like recently in bbby, amtd, etc... But i do agree that for TCRT to stay above $5 than there must be a fundamental improvement. As far as your reasons:
 
"1) We learn that a second patient was treated at 50 with good safety and the first 40B dose has been administered with good safety to date."
 
While important, I do not see this as being a catalyst, by itself, that will result in the stock surpassing $5 unless the stock is already trading in the mid $4 level. 
 
 
"2) The first patient had a tumor reduction of 30% or greater"
 
While a few months ago I did not believe the stock would appreciate past the $3 range on the release of 1-2 patient's data, clearly I have underestimated the return of momentum. While i am not going to disagree that the stock could not pop to $5 on news such as this, I believe at this point the news is largely baked into the pps and it will have difficulty maintaining that level as I am expecting a sell on the news price action to occur. Your last reason is also a reason I expect a sell on the news.  
 
 
"3) A clear indication that they expect to report at another conference by year-end."
 
I disagree with this point. I do not believe we will see additional data until they are ready to report on at least 6 patients that have been infused at the 40B cell level. Which means for me, I do not expect to see them reporting more data at a conference until end of q1 of '23 at the earliest. 
 
We all know that the company needs to raise additional funds. It would not surprise me one bit if the company has or is going to use the ATM prior to Sep presentation based on the move that has already occurred in the pps. I understand that the investors on the Board were not fond of the "short cover" raise that Cooper did a number of years ago, but they might be willing to sell a few million shares just to extend the runway a bit to allow for the data to accumulate for a '23 event. 
 
"The TAM is so huge that 3X sales in 3 or 4 years could make TCRT a 10+ billion market cap." 
 
You are correct that the TAM on solid tumors is enormous but TCRT will not have any sales in 3-4 years. This phase trial is going to take quite some time to progress in part due to the company's limited ability to manufacture product to dose patients. 
 
The reality is that until we see a decent amount of data, valuation of this company is going to be based on potential.  Do i believe that a price tag of 10 billion can be secured based on 10 patients, no,  unless you see a significant percent of CR's. Some investors like to bring up Kite but those days are long past. Ask Gilead and their shareholders if the company had shit for brains paying up for Kite based on the information. I expect Postma and the other investors want to be paid and not running this company until commercialization.  I am expecting them to make the best deal possible in the next 18-24 months whether that is partnership or a sale outright.  It is all speculation but if TCRT had tremendous data next year on 6 patients and there was an offer for 5 billion on the data, I believe the Board would jump. But we shall see as price  depends on the data.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
120071 Re: What does TCRT have to show to be a $5 stock? liposghost 0 8/28/2022 12:46:48 PM
120072 Re: What does TCRT have to show to be a $5 stock? Riskyinvestor 3 8/29/2022 7:55:28 AM
120193 Re: What does TCRT have to show to be a $5 stock? / Mabel Celticshrt 0 9/10/2022 4:00:27 PM




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