Hmmmm, the news of a coming spike in China's covid cases was 5/23. According to an article I read, Moderna filed papers to create a Shanghai subsidiary on 5/24.
While it is possible for a next day filing on just the covid spike news, I doubt that is what caused the creation of a place of business in China. IMO, something else caused a thaw in the IP protection stalemate that happened in 2020.
Obviously, Moderna kept the lines of communication open and something convinced Moderna about a renewed possibility of doing business in China enough to justify the time and expense of establishing a legal place of business in the mainland (since they have a Hong Kong office).
Lots of big things could be possible providing the IP can be protected and it could happen at any time. Moderna has plenty of existing inventory but none of a XBB category and lots of idle manufacturing capacity. If China really does have a huge spike in covid cases, they could decide on a mass vaccination campaign using superior mRNA vaccines. I suspect PFE/BNTX have kept in touch also.
In any event, I think this establishment of a subsidiary was caused by circumstances other than last Tuesday's covid spike prediction.