You are absolutely right about the reserve life. I saw the GMP report today and they have CF dropping From $43 million down to $1 million in 2024 because he is just blowing down the SD and Morocco assets without assuming any reinvestment. I can't imagine how these analysts can publish such drivel.
If Morocco only has 5 or 10 BCf and SD only 23 BCF net, then I,ve made a big mistake. The bet is the the LM wells will successfully flow with proper completions and they have 5 or 10 BCF each with more to follow. Also the new seismic on Gharb Centre produces good targets that are repeatable even if small. And that the next wave of exploration in SD comes up with more gas which should be faster and cheaper to develop and MAYBE even oil which would be the home run.
But all that will have to wait first gas in SD, exploration results in 2H19 and demonstrable gas demand growth in Kenitra.
So the payoff, if it happens will be a 2020 event, IMO always.