interesting interaction with tet on reddit / turnabout..../ for co3aii | MVIS Message Board Posts

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Msg  53378 of 54718  at  7/2/2020 1:58:27 PM  by

moissanite


 In response to msg 53375 by  co3aii
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Re: interesting interaction with tet on reddit / turnabout..../ for co3aii

 
Maybe you missed my point.
 
Tom was pointing out this uncertainty (risk). And taking heat from others.  Whereas his history, for many years, until recent years, is that he had no tolerance of others pointing out uncertainty/risk......he would post overly positive stuff, and then discuss only with folks who also overemphasized the (then) positives and completely rejected any negatives/uncertainties/risk. It is good that he over time finally became more balanced in his analysis, and accepts or even points out the negatives.  I was just observing that he is now on the other side of things.....with some folks attacking him for his skepticism that is part of what is now a more balanced analysis by him.  They are doing to him, what he did to others. And he has, to a degree, become the person that he used to reject or ignore. All that is fine........in fact, good on him for becoming more balanced.  But had he been open to differing viewpoints (the rational ones) long ago, it would have served him better, and for the group, a more balanced discussion would have served it better. Live and learn is part of life. So good for him. But, is he just more skeptical about mvis.....or learned to be more open-minded and balanced in DD ?......or has he actually learned that being open to others' differing viewpoints is an advantage in investment DD......has he learned that others challenging your own thinking, is a contribution to making your own DD better, not some sort of evil plan to ruin what you want to happen ?
 
The discourse is civil when all participants engage with all other (civil) participants, regardless of viewpoints.  
 
As for the specific current mvis situation, I wasn't commenting about that. But you made a few points, so...... 
 
Tom, or anybody, does not have to give a flying whatever what others think......BUT, if you don't, then why join a group discussion board ? Tom  could sit quietly at home and think what he wants. But when you join a group board, and post your thoughts, expect group members to respond to that, and be ready and willing to engage in that discussion, and to do that with all civil participants, not just those who share the same thinking about the stock/company.  
 
You and Tom seem to think the definition of a "cheap" stock is one where the PPS is low in absolute terms, like single digit dollars, or even pennies......and such a stock is cheap regardless of any other factors (except maybe an emotional belief in the company/product), like valuation metrics or Mgt talent, etc. I hope it is not news to you that that is NOT how most people (professionals) define "cheap"......they define it on the metrics, like the PPS (whatever dollars/cents number it is) being below a certain ratio relative to sales or earnings, or at least identifiable/predictable future earnings. (Yes, it is more complicated than that. I am just making a point.)  
  
Neither you nor Tom ever provided any solid explanation for why mvis stock could be considered cheap (by normal definitions).  That is OK.......you can invest on whatever you want (the expectation of buyout above the current PPS.....a belief the tech will eventually lead to sales, whatever)..........but if somebody else (me) asks how that makes the stock "cheap", you don't have any solid ground to stand on to argue against that (my) challenge. 
 
Maybe mvis was a speculation worth taking for some folks. That is completely up to those folks (you). I even support folks doing that (versus some here that criticize it). But what one chooses to do, doesn't make it the right investment for others, by their own criteria. And making arguments about somebody missing returns (which hasn't even played out yet) comes across as someone trying to convince themselves they made the correct choice, by claiming other made the wrong choice (of not buying). Not every investment (/speculation) is for everyone.  And I don't know about you, but I am not here to have others tell me what to invest in and when.....I am here to discuss specific stocks, so we can all have more thoughts and information to work with in making our own individual decisions.  (Your contributions on this board are valuable. Tom, not so much, because he posts and runs, or posts and ignores.)  
   
<<<Your declining to buy said that you thought the company would not be bought in its entirety or any of its verticals and that the patent portfolio was worth very little>>>
 
Not correct. My not deciding to invest, has to do with not being able to put a value on mvis business (revenues,...), or its assets in a sale/buyout scenario.  Where is the concrete info to do that ? It doesn't exist. It is fine that you see mvis as a good investment risk/reward (speaking of the current situation, sale of company or verticals) for you. By all means, invest on your own criteria. But there is no info to solidly identify the value (in a buyout for example), and thus define mvis PPS as cheap. You are speculating that it will be worth more than the current PPS (or when it was recently much lower), which is fine, but based on what ? Just because you think it is ?  Well, fine, for you. But that is not concrete valuation data for others to use to justify buying mvis "cheap".  (Now mvis could well be bought out higher, maybe even much higher, than the current PPS. That is a different debate. But the info to define it as certainly cheap at the current time, or even when it was under $1, wasn't/isn't there. It is speculation.......which sometimes does come true.)  
 
<<<In essence it comes down to whether or not the CEO saying they are trying to sell the company means the company will be sold, or not.>>>. 
 
They will sell it, or some verticals, if they can. It comes down to whether anybody is interested in buying, and for what price. It seems unlikely they will continue as is.......which would require funds they may struggle to get, or would be very dilutive (and need votes to add lots more shares). That seems like a worst case scenario for current shareholders. But the debate is what kind of buyout offer (or combination of verticals sales) can they get ? And there isn't solid info about that. It is basically speculation.  Which is fine, but let's call it what it is. It does seem like, if one is willing to take the risk (and the level of risk can be debated......is the downside a smaller multiple than hoped for, or is the downside NO offer above the current mkt cap, and thus continuing via huge dilution, if even possible ?), one could possibly make a fabulous gain (if the best case scenario happens, and some entity values mvis at a high multiple of the current PPS).   
  
P.S. Sorry this was lengthy.....didn't have time to whittle it down.  
 


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
53381 Re: interesting interaction with tet on reddit / turnabout..../ for mois co3aii 0 7/2/2020 2:27:06 PM






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