I am not going to debate your post or outlook that is posed there given that there is a lot of truth there. Nonetheless, those points are not certainties but possibilities and none of them offer a clear time frame for occurrance.
In addition, the people that can actually affect the Gold market is not you nor me. Our own personal opinions mean nothing.
Big in-the-know monied people trade the market and though they do not necessarily make their thoughts known publicly, their actions are clearly reflected in the chart action given that they "move the market" when they buy or sell. In addition, 70% of the trading of any market is done through computers and algorithms and those do not trade off of opinions and assumptions, they trade off of mathematics, support and resistance level and things that are tangible, such as actual news (data, statistics, etc). Keep in mind that it is "money" that makes markets go up or down and what I do through the charts, is follow the money.
I have been doing this for 47 years and I know charts well.
Yes, unexpected (or even already expected) things can happen but until they do, the charts will tell you what are the probabilities of what is to happen and I always follow the probabilities because in the long term, I will be right more often than wrong and if you trade intelligently with risk/reward ratios of at least 4-1 (based on support and resistance levels), in the long run you will be a winner no matter what happens.
What I gave here is what the charts are saying is the most probable scenario.
I do have one question for you and I would like to see if you can answer it. It is simply a common sense question.
If this is the news (Gold demand surged to an 11-year high in 2022 on ‘colossal’ central bank buying), why did Gold drop $100 (5%) last week and give up all it had achieved for the past 6 weeks?