"then the issue is when you start to see something is, can you trust whats developing to be 'real' vs a head fake.. In this case, I have no idea what the PMs are going to do next, so other than a couple of specific miners, I am a leaving things alone myself..."
That may be a wise decision, "leaving things alone" (caveat: at present) and not get caught up in the frenzy. With little or no physical available, many venture forth into something they don't know.
"when you start to see something" applies to more than having tunnel-vision in regards to the PMs, or energy's, day-to-day moves........one need broaden their field of view.
Consider what is happening in regards to the DJIA and W5000 for example. Both have been gradually, and consistently, posting Lower Highs and Lower Lows for some time now.........akin to slowly boiling a frog until it is done, or watching trees while the forests burn, hoping your trees are inflammable (they aren't).
The PMs may appear to be going up, but is that because the $$ is going lower, or some other reason?
Given the choice, "real or a head fake", 'head fakes seem to be abounding, everywhere, what's 'real' anymore?