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Teekay Tankers Ltd.

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Msg  155 of 160  at  8/14/2020 9:50:18 AM  by

dklein


Earnings

TNK beat my estimates by about 5 cents but analysts estimates were higher so the sell off continues. My 3Q estimates are far below analysts estimates. 3Q & 4Q projections are based on current rates for the spot fleet. Fortunately TNK has enough fixed charters to keep earnings and FCF in the black. They have also lowered their breakeven FCF quite a bit since overall debt has been reduced over 30% since 4Q.
 
COVID has hurt rates (oil demand) and I do not see much change for the second half unless oil prices rise high enough to entice more production. What is that number? Not sure maybe $50.
 
Anyway new projections for 3Q based on data in TNK's release are at:
 
My revised fair value ($21) is at https://www.iiex.club/fair-value-list
My fair value (which is not a NAV calculation) and the current price are far below the NAV calculated by TNK ($28.16). NAV continues to climb,from $18.41 a year ago but the market does not appear to value NAV as it did in previous cycles.
 


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
156 Re: Earnings dklein 1 8/14/2020 11:11:49 AM








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