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Retracement in full swing now...From the lows to the recent highs, VM has gone over 700% in a single run. I was in this stock for about 45 days in all - bought in the low 1s, sold in the high 3s and low 4s, and by mid May, I was out of it. It was too hot for me to hold onto. Of course, it ran up another buck without me, but ... no regrets whatsoever.
For some reason, I've always missed the finales and I've always avoided the ... aftermath of such orgies, which tend to be quite messy: blood on the sheets, stains on the walls and all...
So now VM is retracing its huge move. I think it'll retrace the entire move - i.e. we'll see the 1's all over again. Stock closed today at 3.42 and held above its 50d. I have no gripe with that: it's done a bit of work between 3.5 and 4. I'm worried about what's underneath 3.5. VM spent all of one session between 2.84 and 3.41, and all of one session between 1.5 and 1.84. So these two areas are the weak links on the chart - VM simply didn't spend enough time there. I think we're hung out to dry here - this stock ran up too far in too short a time - and now the chicken is coming home to roost.
Now all the tourists who'd bought VM under heavy volume since the 2nd week in May are underwater, so 3.50 looks like tough resistance - an area that the tourists would like to unload at a minimum loss. It looks like we'll crack the 50dma tomorrow and start building downside momentum, and feels like an avalanche is inevitable.
I wouldn't wanna be bottom picking this one, as it is still too hot to handle. Let time do the healing, and when nobody gives a damn about it, I'll step in and buy again.
Cheers, all
HB |
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