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rainy day here, reviewed past reports...what am I missing?In March, the joint steering committee reviews data from January in IMbark study ( MF study). * 100 patients, overall median analysis at 19 months, can NOT predict overall survival (OS) yet. * end of March, they predict enough deaths will occur sometime in 2Q to determine OS * they decide to take the data cut at end of June for the third review of this phase2 study. Janssen reports they will complete their review of the data during the third quarter and decide to continue, or not continue ,the collaboration with Geron by the end of 3Q ( i'e'; Sept 30). based on the above, I am concluding that the OS should be somewhere north of 22 months ( January wasn't enough for 19 months, at the end of March-- (add 3 months ) they predicted sometime between April and June they'd hit their protocol specified number of events..conservatively guess it was in April, add another month... DOESNT THIS MAKE A 23 TO 25 month OS prediction rather safe? Michael |
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