It's all up to how far Novartis takes the drug in the 36 months after the buyout is complete. It's my belief that if Novartis is still working with the drug, they will have done the Phase 2B Trial, a $5 million milestone payment means $2.5 million to shareholders, or a little over $1 a share.
This could be as far as the trial goes, or it's not impossible that really outstanding results takes the drug to approval and sales in that time. In most cases approval comes out of Phase 3 Trials, but it's not impossible for it to come out of a Phase 2B, which might be expanded in size to gain the approval. I'm uncertain how much in total the milestones through approval would add up to, but it certainly could be $25 million or more. That would equate to over $5 for each GNVC share. While I doubt if significant sales are very possible in 36 months, some sales could add more.
If I had to put odds on these things happening, I'd say the odds of reaching a Phase 2B are perhaps 50%, some milestone beyond Phase 2B about 15%, and approval and sales, perhaps 5%. I certainly don't know anything more than all here should know, but my view of the odds are simply based on my experience with other biotech stocks.
Gary