Re: ARWR begins dosing ARO-HBV
They are nowhere near each other.
ABUS is in its effectively 3rd P2. It is about to initiate other add on agents that may or may not be required for a cure but are not available to ARWR. It is planning to determine if the current regimen should go to P3. ARWR has to assess safety and then start to assess efficacy.
ABUS has determined Pl safety and assessed 2 different versions before proceeding to advanced P2.
ARWR has not assessed 1 variant of its new tech yet for safety let alone efficacy. It knows it is behind. How much do you think Anzalone would be willing to start again if version 1 of ARO-HBV isn't great? His track record is of cutting P1/2 corners to "fly in the clinic". So even if they could "catch up", how good is the agent they are "catching up" with? Is it as good as the 2 agents they previously led with and had to can?
The fact that ARWR has a bigger market cap than a company with more advanced programs and more assets has little to do with long term success probability and more to do with a shameless willingness to sell themselves to the markets. A trait that is no doubt helpful. However, doesn't guarantee long term success and pps appreciation but rather short term gain for those who are in the know as to when the game will be played or lucky.
ABUS has to keep its eye on its own development and not worry about ARWR or other wannabes. If it doesn't execute that's not ARWR's fault it's ABUS' s.
As we go on to more advanced studies results take longer to generate and will be more frustrating for us. No doubt ARWRs data will be quick but you have to question the detail in which it will be done. Last time they didn't even bother to complete P1 before going to P2. Then P2 wasn't effective and they had to to go back and complete higher dose P1. They diced with human toxicity at that point as they needed to push the dose for efficacy and hadn't previously ensured a higher dose limit. The while program could have failed then but instead failed later after even more resource was spent.