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Re: Cowen - EXEL: Q4 CABO REVS INLINE, GUIDANCE SHOWS OPTIMISM FOR CONTINUED SHARE GAIN IN 1L RCC (Outperform PT 24)Lots of good stuff here: ================================================ Really GOOD News: --Thus, given the continued market share growth for Cabo in Q4, we believe concerns about Lenvima competition may have been overdone. ================================================= Something to look for in Conference Call: --suggesting potential inventory stocking ahead of the new year (especially given the 7.5% price increase for Cabo effective 1/1/22) ================================================ Optimism and Caution on COSMIC 313: --Our consultants expect the triplet to surpass the doublet on PFS, but key question is whether the magnitude of the difference will be sufficient to also drive an OS benefit (which is admittedly hard in 1L setting). This is important to justify moving all 3 drugs to be used together in 1L instead of sequencing the regimens to maximize outcomes. ============================================================== Patent Litigation will continue to be an overhang in 2022: The outlook ahead will very much be determined by key data updates (both Cabo and early stage pipeline) and outcome of ANDA litigation now that the trial has been scheduled for May ’22. ====================================================================== This sound more like a $35 price target than a $24 Price Target: --Our Investment Thesis After strong growth, Cabometyx (cabozantinib) is facing intense competition that may pressure sales. Positive Phase 3 data from CHECKMATE-9ER (Opdivo/cabo) in 1L RCC has re-accelerated growth. Over the long term, we see cabo being used across all RCC patients, thereby maintaining its value. We expect the pipeline to provide long-term growth and are optimistic for success. We think Exelixis could be an attractive takeout target due to (1) having several approved products; (2) offering tremendous growth prospects; (3) fully scaled out infrastructure; (4) with sustainable profitability; and (5) trading at attractive valuation. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
28544 | Re: Cowen - EXEL: Q4 CABO REVS INLINE, GUIDANCE SHOWS OPTIMISM FOR CONTINUED SHARE GAIN IN 1L RCC (Outperform PT 24) | enabeler | 0 | 1/18/2022 9:17:19 AM |