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Re: Buying On WeaknessThanks Vooh and Mr. Monkey for the input. If I can chime in... I think I feel the same frustration as Mr. Monkey while understanding Voohs points. I probably mirrored Voohs point of view more so in the past. I had bought at about $9 pre-advisory meeting, then bought just before the November approval. That never worked out. Been holding since, watching this slow drop. What’s really disheartening is DVAX as much as it participated in the biotech purge of 2018, it hasn’t come close to participating in the 2019 revival, in fact its continued its decline. Why? I never liked Gray’s forecast regarding the uptake of Hepislav-b, his sales projections. As much as the approval was a big splash after all the missteps, I would have thought it would have been far far faster adopted, especially with the label they got, the two vs. 3 dose, the 2 month vs. 6 month , and the better efficacy. The projections were low, IMO, and even so, this inflection that gGay talked of for 2019, Is not even in sight. So why the slow adoption? A couple of things. I was in high tech sales for 40 years. A motivated, educated, talented sales team supported by a strong marketing department/plan, would always outsell the competition regardless of how the product would stack up against that competition. But give that sales force the better product, and they would kill it. Don’t underestimate a sales force in biotech. It’s never just good enough to have the better product. Your need sales and marketing leadership to drive sales. And the fact they actually have the better product than Egenerix, buy a long shot, just speaks to horrible leadership from marketing, sales, and the CEO. It’s a disgrace. Secondly. If you were to tell me, ‘Hey, that’s not the case. They have a great team in place, they are doing all the right things’, then I’d ask to you explain why the horrible performance to date. Well don’t overlook GSKs sales force. They have all the relationships, with hospitals, doctors, distributors, KOLs, etc. That’s who DVAX is competing with. A salesforce that dwarfs DVAX and has far far more talent and resources, and connections. GSK was never going to just cede this market to DVAX. but if you have the better product, you can outsell the gorilla, if you have a sales plan, a marketing plan, and a talented aggressive sales force. I’m telling you, it’s apparent DVAX does not. But there is also a big elephant in this room that no one likes to mention. And speaking of a smart sales force, I can guarantee GSK is hammering this home. It’s the post marketing stud/trial. Whether it’s BS or not is simply not the point. Don’t argue this with me. But I’ll guarantee every time GSK comes across DVAX that is the one overriding issue they bring up. is it FUD? Yup. And if I was GSK, I’d hammer it home. “You’ve been using Egenerix for years now, it has a great safety profile, its effective. And now for a few % points of efficacy, you are going to risk having your patients get a an MCI? You really want to take on that risk, that liability?” And if you don’t think those conversations are happening, and that they are effective, then you are both naive and ignorant, and don’t understand sales. So what can DVAX do from a sales perspective to combat this? Well first they have this trial, and per the FDA mandate, they are required to provide updates to the FDA quarterly. I emailed DVAX long ago,. And they said they plan to provide interim results in mid year 2019. If I were DVAX, I would have been sharing these quarterly updates with the investing public and for all the KOLs and Doctors giving vaccines to see. Let everyone know its safe They were and are under no obligation to keep these results they were are sharing with the FDA under wraps. That would be one way. But getting back to this elephant, if you want another reason that may explain this stock decline, you can look at VBIV. This little shit company had been selling their vaccine in Israel for years. Annual revenue of about $200K. They were a fly on that elephants ass of DVAX and GSK, for years. But what about them now. They are becoming a very big fly.. In June, VBIV will be announcing the top line results of their first phase 3 vaccines, sci-b. It will beat Egenerix with a almost the same numbers as hepislav-b. And one of their secondary endpoints is a two dose look that early data showed was just as effective as Hepislav-b I agree that the FDA would not have approved hepislav-b it if it wasn’t safe. But yet we let them suck us into this post marketing trial because first and foremost, DVAX upfront offered to do it as a condition of approval. Idiots. But the bigger point is, by the time we would be fortunate to actually start reaching this hypothetical inflection point, we will be competing with not only GSK and MERK, Hepislav-b, do you think VBIV was even considered? Well because they have been so slow to market, they now have to. And DVAX better hope that by the time they launch that this PM Is over with a clean bill of health. Which gets me to my last point. A BO. First, go to any stock MB here on IV and everybody’s darling stock is about to be acquired. But why would you acquire DVAX? I would never consider acquiring DVAX until the PMT is done. Would you as a CEO? Nope. If I was really in the market to acquire a Hep-b vaccine, why wouldn’t I just wait for the top line results of VBIV just a few months away, which will be absolutely in line with DVAX and buy them, and avoid altogether any safety issues, regardless if real or not? And btw way, VBIV will be going for approval in europe. Europe? DVAX doesn't even know how to spell it. Hepislav-b should have been the cash cow to fuel development of C. DVAX should have long ago recognizes the dynamics I describe above and should have looked to partner hepislav-b while they had the chance. That chance gets smaller and smaller everyday this PMT goes on and VBIV gets closer to top line results. Gray has pissed it all away. I’m a shareholder. And frankly the primary reason to hold DVAX now is C, not hepislav -b. And I’m not sure I want to be holding DVAX when VBIV announces their top line results come June for Sci-b. Gees I guess I’m more aligned with mr monkey than I thought after venting here. Just really disappointed .hmmm. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
1531 | Re: Buying On Weakness | phition42 | 0 | 3/19/2019 10:41:49 AM |
1533 | Re: Buying On Weakness | Vooh | 0 | 3/19/2019 2:16:56 PM |