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Msg  13301 of 13437  at  10/21/2020 12:20:00 PM  by

countrygent


 In response to msg 13300 by  marpincan
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Re: problem is


Nothing will move the SP as much as a weaker US dollar and monetary inflation being expressed as higher copper and gold prices.

The outlook is pretty good (or bad depending on your POV) in that regard. The global economy has taken a very serious clubbing from Covid. Huge swaths of consumer activity are destroyed - particularly travel, hospitality, entertainment, brick and mortar retail, commercial leasing, and all their supporting industries, suppliers, fabricators. Imagine running a theatre seat manufacturer, Boeing, kitchen supply, a shipyard building cruise ships or a supplier for fitting them out. Tour companies, taxi companies, caterers, the wedding industry, slammed. Large knock-on effects of economic slowdown and unemployment that will require both monetary and fiscal expenditure/stimulus.

However, the expected government reaction will be relief programs (dropping money not from helicopters but into mailboxes which is darn close), and large infrastructure project spending, including large subsidy for green energy programs. Gold for monetary inflation - check. Copper for infrastructure and clean energy - check. US policy of tightening imports and improving exports for job creation by weakening the dollar (also why they won’t really slow fracking too much - to keep oil imports low), good for driving foreign savers toward gold from the US dollar and bonds in a low/no interest paying environment, great for gold.

The global GDP is about $80 trillion annually. Covid relief and monetary accommodation globally has been a $2 trillion per month expenditure so far according to the IMF. That spend rate will probably rise. Covid is going to cause disruption on a greater scale again this winter in the northern hemisphere. Will there be a treatment or prevention available by this time next year? Touch and go there.

In the meantime maybe investors will get excited about basic materials and gold in which case, if for once things fall out rationally, and the US dollar is held down ... up we go? 15 years later.

cg



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