Re: calls for $2. copper by 2020
This predication is based on so-called graph or technical analysis.
Call me nuts (or stupid, if you will), but I have a rule of thumb -- NEVER listen to technical analysts. I have a feeling that the investment banks and hedge funds use this guys to influence people into selling or buying in order for them (the banks and funds) to get good price points. Its an elaborate con-game based on the most transparent pseudo-mathematics.
Can copper go down further? No doubt. Right now copper tracks the Chinese manufacturing index so closely that if you can tell me what the CMI will be in two weeks, I'd be able to tell you the copper price with good precision. So goes China, so goes copper. That simple. Accumulation, distribution, up-trends and down-trends have nothing to do with it. Fundamentals always trump technical factors if you have enough patience to make it through the nonsense.
March 1st is a big day for all concerned. Probably a week or two before that the market is going to get wind of the terms of a trade deal. The pundits are sayting that it will likely be a "halfway house" deal that gets a fair amount accomplished, but leaves the thorniest issues, like subsidies to state-owned corps and technology leaders, to be resolved at a future date (or not). The deal will give Chinese and other Asian industrialists more confidence and will get the CMI moving up again. And when that happens -- might take some time -- Cu will recover.