bankbuyer
You are right. I would say S/D is a small component until it isn't. We are in a recession so its easy for those trading programs to manipulate crude prices. Monetary policy is leading to a declining money supply and higher interest rates and even though we have seen job reports telling us things are rosy, we are more likely to head for a severe recession so yes manipulating crude is possible. In short It's easy to manipulate crude down in that kind of macro environment.
I am not convinced the crude market will dance to the tune of a recession. I do not see crude linked totally to global supply demand fundamentals but much more to exogenous influences that are not controllable by paper traders or the Fed.
Cheers
J