TCRT-PGEN Fundamental & Technical Discussion Board - The scan on patient 1 has likely occurred. I would love to have a little information on the scan - TCRT-PGEN Fundamental & Technical Discussion Board - InvestorVillage


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Msg  27732 of 28328  at  5/20/2022 9:09:17 AM  by

kcchris


The scan on patient 1 has likely occurred. I would love to have a little information on the scan

If the patient hit 30 days at the time of the PR saying they were infused they definitely have done the 6 week scan completed at this point.  Worst case scenario is the scan is being done now.  Personally, I think once the doctors know and the company knows the narrative to analysts and wall street in general will change if the the results are positive.  You can bet Mr. Boyle is getting a call from all the major shareholders and the biggest institutions to see how the patient is doing and the dose level for patient 2.  
 
How many people at MDA will see these results when they arrive?  My guess is that there will be at least 10-20 that will know within a day or 2 of the scan.  They will tell anyone that has a potential patient to enroll.  Anyone involved will know.  Everyone working with Dr. Negrao will know.  The patient will know and everyone in his/her family will know.  If the results are positive every friend of the patient will know.
 
If the patient is doing well I am betting that the news finds it's way to analysts and hedge funds very fast.  So beginning next week and soon after the share price could begin moving higher.  You can bet the ones that will work to get the results are the shorts.  They are exposed to 34 million shares.  If the company releases positive information they potentially could lose $100s of million of profits.  If the results are bad they can potentially make currently $16 million more.  The risk reward is a concern for that group.  missing out on potential profits is something wall street hates but watching profits disappear and seeing huge losses is something they will avoid if possible.
 
So I imagine that we are likely to get approval to 40B soon.  The people approving the move to 40B likely wanted the safety information and have that in hand but likely they want the 6 week scan to see the treatments impact on the tumor.  The only reason to do a 2nd patient is if they treatment had a negative impact on the tumor.  No efficacy, limited efficacy or good efficacy would allow the move to 40B.  If the tumor size increased more than you would have expected they would probably need to do a second patient at 5B cells.  I don's see that as a possibility.  If the tumor size increased they probably would have had safety issues and stopped the trial to determine if this was related to the treatment.
 
So my expectation is approval to use 40B cells next week.  Also based on the decision to dose at 40B cells and likely efficacy information that will be shared to everyone but retail investors shorts and institutions will begin covering and building a position.  That assumes the safety was good and that there was some limited efficacy at 5B cells.
 
 
So my opinion is the next week or 2 will be a good indication of the results.  Watch the stock closely.  If you see the share price increasing slowly or even better fairly fast it is because the first patient performed well.   
 
 


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
27733 Re: The scan on patient 1 has likely occurred. I would love to have a little information on the scan Bronxboy50 3 5/20/2022 11:34:48 AM


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