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Msg  8300 of 8391  at  1/15/2020 12:29:23 PM  by

GreatSwami


 In response to msg 8274 by  GreatSwami
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Re: Genuinely an interesting situation?

I guess Guest fixed the cash remaining at C$48 million for year end and Q4 average production at 646 boe/day average for Q4 is better than expected from natural declines. (He mentions some workovers and re-completions were done as well as back in Q3 there were some shut-ins lowering Q3 averages).
 
So shallow production at year end maybe in the 600 boe/day range? (Any gas produced and sold down the line through facilities during the Devepinar testing work would only have added - if it was even included in the numbers - about 18-19 boe/day to the fourth quarter averages.) Maybe with no new workovers or shallow drilling that production looks like it will now end 2020 at close to 500 boe/day? (Assuming a 15% average decline rate). But there will be two more shallow wells perhaps drilled in West Thrace before Summer for earning provisions. That could provide a boost if successful but will use up some of that cash.)
 
Year end cash value ~ C$0.55 per share. It appears that the shallow gas cash flow covers costs while they are not spending anything new - so SP will likely remain stable at that C$0.55-C$0.60 level until further revelations from the VLE Crystal Ball? (Q4 and Annual Reports plus any operations update) They will need to mobilise a rig at some point to get those shallow wells drilled - they may turn one of those shallow wells into another deep well test perhaps - time will tell? SP action today (initial bump notwithstanding) appears to confirm this.
 
In the meantime Condor may well get to give some news for their planned Yakamoz sidetrack. Poyraz Ridge is not the Thrace but close-ology always has some influence.
 
GS 


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