Turkey - The ignorance of geology and resources on SH is astonishing. - Turkey - InvestorVillage
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Msg  8289 of 8383  at  1/13/2020 4:50:49 PM  by


The ignorance of geology and resources on SH is astonishing.

"Equinor leaving would be a good thing imo. All concession rights would revert back to VLE who could then flog them to a company that might be a little more proactive and aggressive. But I doubt that is going to happen. Too much at stake for Equinor to leave now." (Waitingstill)
All deep concession rights in Banarli would revert to VLE should Equinor leave but their 50% reversion in West Thrace not so - they own that already. (There is considerable disagreement over whether or not Equinor has already fully earned in in the Banarli Licence? Mty view is that they have - they have just not yet determined that they wish to take over operatorship yet? That will clear up over the next month or so when the VLE Q4 results and the 2019 Annual Reports have to come out.
If they have fully earned in - it is their 50% to sell or Farm out - as they determine - and nothing at all to do with VLE.
VLE - until there is material clarification - have their ownership of the shallow plays (100% in Banarli, 81.5% (?) in West Thrace) and their 50% deep basin interest in Banarli and 31.5% interest in West Thrace. (Pinnacle 18.5% interest in West Thrace deep and shallow)
It is highly improbable that VLE has 100% of anything to play with or to sell on to A.N Other? They have what they have.
Who are these Unicorn Companies waiting in the wings to jump in paying top dollar for an interest into a vast Capital black hole? There are facilities and shallow P1 and P2 reserves and some ambiguous very hard to develop economically potential resources. There is some speculation on future gas pricing - but short term the future for gas pricing looks like continual weakening fundamentals in the European market areas as huge conventional gas resources become more available and the NGL markets gets ever more players seeking markets for their surpluses.
This is not a place for juniors, and all the Shells, the Totals, the ENIs and the BPs would have looked this over very thoroughly and given it the two thumbs down already. Gazprom? Maybe - but only to piss off western strategic interests and because its in their orbit - and they certainly won't overpay. Basically VLE's entire interest is up for sale at less than C$50 million - chump change really considering Equinor has thrown over C$100 million at the the play and achieved nothing.
Who is left to buy? Who is going to be magically more aggressive and proactive? True - much of any needed science has now been done, and with all the samples, cores, well logs and production tests there is vastly more data to study than at any time before. Is it enough to completely do away with any pretence at science and go into a regional - ruthlessly cheap - rape and pillage operation cutting all superfluous drilling and completion costs to the bone? The play is still HPHT and requires a certain amount of expensive precautionary drilling and completion practises. There is a requirement for a deep drilling rig that has to be mobilised to country as well as all the completion equipment - and truly it is only worth doing that for a multi-well program and a program that has some chance of paying for itself.
Perhaps all that is left here is fodder for a bunch of academics to write learned papers about now - cautionary tales of how to recognise plays that might never be commercial?

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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
8290 Re: The ignorance of geology and resources on SH is astonishing. theactivist 0 1/13/2020 6:44:20 PM
8295 Re: The ignorance of geology and resources on SH is astonishing. The Red 0 1/14/2020 5:13:29 PM

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