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Turkey
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Re: Yam & Recap ModeInteresting conundrum Dave? They will by necessity be trying to frac and test the most interesting and significant zones of interest from the bottom up. Its just the way it has to be. We can pretty well tell that the lower two flow zones at Yamalik had little if any formation water production (my guess) but that the uppermost two did. (One for sure and the other is strongly hinted at?) If Inanli is not heavily naturally fractured (and the Company guess/position is that it is) then the lowermost zones are likely to show similar very low permeability and very low in situ gas and condensate storage capacity as depicted in the flow tests from the similar zones at Yamalik. Again - with no natural fracture swarms of any significance the same zones that were seemingly wet in part at Yamalik will most likely (but not absolutely irrefutably) be so at Inanli too. However testing those uppermost and thickest most permeable and porous zones will come last - probably months down thr road. In the interim we have Devinipar drilling results and all the arm waving that will accompany their proving the overpressured BCGA model holds across the basin. (But we know that already).They may infer the presence or absence of great looking fracture swarms and high net to gross turbidite sand stacks. There will be the Production Logging Test results from Yamalik that will be confirmatory of what we know (or suspect) - or not? There will also be the LSE listing and all the extra attention that entails. Its going to be volatile and perform like a VIX index and I have not got the faintest clue as to whether that VIX like uncertainty and volatility will be against a continuing downward trend, against a holding pattern in the 2-3 buck range - or whether the trend reverses and steadily moves upwards against - and in defiance of - all its most recent history since February 2018? (That is one steady trend going down with a nice upper and lower channel!) I guess the reality is that this is not - and has not been - investing. Its been speculation all the way... But one way or another the rubber has to hit the road somewhere and it has begun with a few bounces off the tarmac - but its going to land soon and then the question is of whether it just loads up with passengers and takes right off again - or is it headed off to the storage unit at Pima airbase in Arizona? GS |
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