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Msg  49517 of 52130  at  2/18/2020 1:35:30 PM  by

valuationguy


 In response to msg 49512 by  Sharon
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Re: From the thefly on ARNA

Sharon,
 
My concern isn't the phase 2 study or its ability to attract enough patients....it's the LARGER phase 3 studies (assuming the phase 2 study is safe and is more effective than current treatments (including current phase 2 & 3 trials being conducted by competitors)...which I do believe will be the case) which are typically where there might be issues in trial recruitment.....primarily because there are A LOT of other drugs currently in development for AD at this time.
 
Without knowing the E phase 2 effectiveness and safety data for AD however...it's just too risky to assign much if any value (YET) to the E AD indication..especially in a crowded space where marketing approval is at least three years off (at best)....thus my cautionary position.  The UC indication is at least ahead of that schedule, it's field is much less crowded, AND its the PRIMARY indication the Company feels deserves first dibs on development dollars....thus management has much MORE confidence in E for UC than it does for AD...but we are still seeing how hard it is to convince the market as to the good value of E for UC.  
 
We each have our own opinions of course...but I doubt that my opinion (on E's AD value at this point) is all that different from most other professional analysts covering the stock. 
 
VG 


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
49518 Re: From the thefly on ARNA Sharon 4 2/18/2020 1:49:06 PM






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