My Absence...Research Reources/Ideas
I've been around but IV boards dropped out of my cross check. I will keep checking in here but not as often as previously. Will occasionally post ideas...been on Twitter much more as far as gathering research.
Been very bullish cyclical and commodity stocks and still am. Made a ton on FIL.v yesterday thanks to @Traderpamplona on twitter. I only use it for financial research and I'm very particular on who I follow. Don't tweet much at all, though. I know doom is on twitter and follow him. Chi, Eric Nutall and Art Berman are good follows on energy. I suspect most on these boards are using twitter and already following most of these people and more.
I'm very bullish on oil stocks right now longer term and think we are in a major cycle...also, copper, tin and other commodities. Wouldn't be surprised if this market rhymes with 2000-2008. Really like AFM.v (high risk jurisdiction, though) and hold a bunch of VALE 2023 calls that are now ITM. Hold tons of small JR miners and some precious metals stocks.
I actually think the homebuilding cycle is not near as cyclical as the market does looking at valuations...GRBK is an investment for me. Keep an eye on WFG and CFP.to. They are pricing in much much lower lumber prices...think lumber drops but stays elevated.
I think the market is higher risk now overall due to the end of the 10+ year duration trade/tech bubble. Not sure if we see a major bear or just a gradual reallocation into global equities away from US and also value.
That's my current view, right or wrong, in a nutshell and have had a great 18 months but have been keeping hedges on some of the time with put spreads...especially recently. I think there are tons of shortable stocks out there especially in tech and maybe some biotech as duration trade feels over. Shorting is tricky and usually only stay short for several days to a couple weeks trying to capture quick swoons.
Also, if you don't subscribe to Luke Gromen and Tree Rings I highly recommend it. Cheap and a great macro overlay service. Best value for the money among many of my subs.
And finally, the reason I posted today is METC...very bullish IMO and think this stock can do well over the coming few quarters as I believe met coal prices are on the way up. Their CC yesterday was fantastic...listen in and run the numbers going forward. Their FCF over the coming few quarters should be great. Also, if this is a secular bull in met coal prices and it's just starting there is tons of runway for METC.