Energy Investing - Golden Pass LNG In Service Date Slips To 2025 - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


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Msg  536496 of 550945  at  12/7/2023 12:09:48 PM  by

W


Golden Pass LNG In Service Date Slips To 2025

 
11:54 AM ET
Thomson Reuters
UPDATE 1-US natgas slides to 3-month low on mild weather, Golden Pass LNG delay
(Adds EIA storage report, latest prices) By Scott DiSavino Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a three-month low on Thursday on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand as investors worried liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would not grow much in 2024. On Wednesday, Exxon Mobil delayed expected LNG production at its 2.4-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas to the first half of 2025 from the second half of 2024. Traders said that delay helped sink futures prices by about 5% on Wednesday because it would reduce demand and leave more gas in the U.S., forcing producers to cut production or inject more gas into storage or both. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a massive 117 billion cubic feet (bcf) withdrawal from storage during the week ended Dec. 1, bigger than the 106-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and exceeding a withdrawal of 30 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 48 bcf. Analysts said last week's withdrawal was bigger than usual because cold weather boosted heating demand. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.4 cents, or 1.7%, to $2.525 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 11:04 a.m. EST (1604 GMT). For the second straight day, it was on track for its lowest close since Sept. 6 and also in oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 30. With record production levels and ample storage, the gas futures market has been sending bearish signals for weeks that futures prices for this winter (November-March) had likely already peaked in November. One of the biggest signs the market has given up on winter price spikes was the collapse of the premium of futures for March over April to a record low of just one cent per mmBtu. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Traders have noted that gas demand peaks during the winter heating season and therefore summer prices should not trade above winter. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 107.3 bcfd so far in December from a record 107.8 bcfd in November. Daily output was on track to drop by 2.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary one-month low of 106.0 bcfd on Thursday. Meteorologists projected the weather would turn from warmer-than-normal from Dec. 7-10 to near-normal from Dec. 11-14 and then back to warmer-than-normal from Dec. 15-22. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 121.5 bcfd this week to 126.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.4 bcfd so far in December, up from a record 14.3 bcfd in November. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Dec 1 Nov 24 Dec 1 average Actual Actual Dec 1 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -117 +10 -30 -48 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,719 3,836 3,465 3,485 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 8.6% 6.7% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.50 2.57 5.77 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.58 12.38 36.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 16.01 16.06 32.34 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 338 348 362 367 395 U.S. GFS CDDs 2 2 11 6 4 U.S. GFS TDDs 340 350 373 373 399 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year (2018-2022) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 109.0 107.3 107.4 102.7 94.2 U.S. Imports from Canada8 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Total U.S. Supply 117.5 116.1 116.2 111.8 103.5 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 4.8 3.9 5.2 5.6 5.0 U.S. LNG Exports 14.1 14.5 14.4 11.7 8.6 U.S. Commercial 15.5 13.2 14.2 13.5 14.6 U.S. Residential 25.5 21.0 23.2 21.8 24.7 U.S. Power Plant 33.8 33.3 33.2 30.9 28.6 U.S. Industrial 25.3 24.3 24.7 24.1 25.0 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 108.6 99.9 103.5 98.7 101.2 Total U.S. Demand 130.0 121.5 126.4 119.3 118.0 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 86 88 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 84 86 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 85 86 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Dec 8 Dec 1 Nov 24 Nov 17 Nov 10 Wind 10 10 11 9 11 Solar 3 3 3 3 4 Hydro 5 6 6 6 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 42 39 42 41 Coal 18 17 16 17 16 Nuclear 22 20 22 21 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.76 2.72 Transco Z6 New York 2.73 2.66 PG&E Citygate 4.89 4.95 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.09 2.31 Chicago Citygate 2.33 2.50 Algonquin Citygate 9.90 13.04 SoCal Citygate 4.30 4.65 Waha Hub 1.01 2.03 AECO 1.56 1.56 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 102.50 117.25 PJM West 41.75 47.75 Ercot North 19.25 24.75 Mid C 61.00 69.60 Palo Verde 25.00 45.25 SP-15 34.50 42.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)
 


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