Energy Investing - HFI research on OBE (edited) - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


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Msg  536494 of 550916  at  12/7/2023 12:05:13 PM  by

Naamkat

The following message was updated on 12/7/2023 12:19:50 PM.

 In response to msg 536478 by  newtoboard
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Re: HFI research on OBE (edited)

  
"Adjust to current strip and they're probably at ~ breakeven for 2024."
 
That's what I came up with, -$75m from the $440m estimate.  In retrospect I may have over-reduced for AECO, let's call it -$70m or $370m CF for 2024 if current strip prevails (let's hope not but companies should always prepare for the worst).  
 
This means they can just afford their growth plan (-$10m is immaterial) w/o expanding debt unduly and a D:CF around 0.75x.
 
No margin for error though.  If it was me making the presentations, I think I'd back up to a 3-year growth plan...at least (if and) till WTI recovers (AECO really doesn't matter) or TMX delivers low teen diffs. 
 
Regards,
Naamkat 
 
P.S.  According to Romm, it is a 3-year plan.  Therefore,  I say (for now) make it 4.
 
 


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