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Msg  522071 of 535891  at  9/23/2023 11:30:23 AM  by


 In response to msg 522056 by  coolreit
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Room To Run (in the Permian)?

Room To Run?

This map is from out of Austin; I've used their stuff for ten years. Pretty savvy group. This is a map of both sub-basins in the Permian; New Mexico, the Central Platform and Midland County are easily discernable for reference sake. I know how these folks determine Tier level 1 thru Fringe areas and I consider it pretty accurate, actually. This map will overlie any Novi, Enverus or WelldataBase map nicely on similar scales and the current productive limits for both sub-basins are well defined. You can click on the thingy upper right and make it bigger. I only bring this map up to show you because of this tweet below...

I don't know who this is, naturally, or if he knows where he gets his data or his credibility. The thing is, there are millions of people on Twitter who suck money off the tight oil phenomena anyway they can and they all believe this. I am not picking on this guy; they all think this. They do not want their cash cow party to end, they can't think past next week about their country; its all about money to them. 200,000 more drillable locations in the Permian, by the way, would create 87G BO more production, almost 5 times whats already been produced.

People hide behind annonmous names on social media to avoid any allegations of discredibility. As far as we know this could be a former Chevron CEO, or a plumber from Oakland, CA, who knows? I'd rather know, meself.

So look at this map, remember there are basically three benches being developed in the Midland Basin, and five and one half over in the Delware Basin, notice how few wells have been drilled in Tier 3 level acreage thus far and most importantly, look at where all the permits (yellow) are still being filed (thru August). In spite of $80+ oil, they are still highgrading core areas of the core counties. Nobody is out in the goat pasture looking for non-pressure depleted, low GOR, low WOR stuff. There in the sweet spots, still fighting domestic issues between parents and children and even vertical communication between benches. You know why they won't leave the sweet spots?

Becuase it sucks out there. They can't make money in that stuff even at $100 oil. They cannot draw on RCL's are any other form of credit because nobody will give them money on 5% IRR's. And trust me, they are still needing OPM to stay on the drilling hamster wheel. Even Pioneer is floating bonds for more CAPEX. There is still a lot of debt in the Permian, and its growing again.

So you look at this map and decide for yourself how much room there is to run in the mighty Permian Basin. 40 more years, even ten more years? Even five more years at 5,000 completions per year?

Most CEO's in the tight oil business don't know diddly about finding and extracting oil and gas. They are finance engineers.

American is going to pretty much go wide open, as money, and more debt will allow, until it can't anymore. Then it will come to an abrupt stop and everybody will hold their hands high into the air and scream, WTF ! Now what are gonna do?!!!


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
522075 Re: Room To Run (in the Permian)? GasGuy77 23 9/23/2023 12:01:39 PM
522139 Permian peaking in charts from Gurgen coolreit 5 9/24/2023 2:41:33 AM

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