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Msg  521823 of 535227  at  9/21/2023 1:47:44 PM  by


 In response to msg 521815 by  Naamkat
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Re: Nuttals 2024 $90WTI FCF Yield Pareto Chart:VIA

“hope that is your take and not their statement because that sounded to me like a debt service argument not re-commitment to rapid debt expungement.

It's code for, "drill baby drill!" which, obviously, we know is the case when predicting an almost doubling of production in 3 years, (which I understood), but I was hoping there'd still be some modest amount targeted at the ~$330m (from memory, please forgive) absolute debt.”

It’s from the presentation. The outlook shows a net debt of $25mm (essentially zero) at YE ‘26. The CEO explained in the webcast, however, that they have no intention of paying down substantial debt. This means they’ll have approx $300mm to do something with in the next three years. It could be buybacks, debt pay down, acquisitions, etc. Steve Loukas is not in favor of dividends anytime soon. His opinion is that a ~$300mm debt level is appropriate for a producer headed to 50K BOE.

Essentially the $0 debt level is possible if they make no additional capex investments past this new plan, no buybacks, and no acquisitions. Most likely we get some buybacks, but Loukas is very willing to pivot on a dime if market conditions change. Personally I’d still like to see them buy BNE if the OBE share price continues to outperform BNE’s.

I want to pound the table and point out this outlook is contingent on netbacks of $35/BOE. They achieved this level in Q2 this year with lousy pricing.

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