I appreciate your thoughts, there is a lot of validity to them. I think there is a lot of truth to what you say and the markets have some similar concerns. If you look at the chart below, this last year one can see NG taking a tremendous dive off a cliff. A big part of that was the Biden administration's slow roll of the permits for Freeport - basically taking out 2 BCFPD of NG feed for the better part of 6 months. That is a lot of gas dumping back in the system that is being exported. Second, one can see that low NG price for the last 6 months, and companies in numerous CC's are deferring capital in NG areas, because they have oil prospects. The increase in production is less likely, since the remaining DUC's are gone. The big swing NG producer is the Haynesville and a lot of rigs left there to go to the Permian, and $2.75 NG is just not going to get it done to bring rigs back away from $90 oil prospects. Areas that have great NG economics are waiting for the MVP to show up - that might produce when cold weather shows up to directly heat within the Marcellus/Utica Basins but it can't get out.
On the chart if you look at the RSI it is slowly trending upward to the 50 line, but it is still in downtrend territory. The CMF is waffling at the crossover point. The Fast STO is turning up, and there is a similar pennant formation on the price itself, that looks a lot like the launch pad for NG pricing even before the Ukrainian war.
Short term (and longer) oil is where it is at. NG is slowly ticking to better pricing, unless we start to see a lot of NG rigs picked up.