Energy Investing - Suncor Energy to Acquire TotalEnergies' Canadian Operations for $5.5 Billion - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


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Msg  495719 of 534971  at  4/27/2023 4:23:42 AM  by

tigersea


 In response to msg 495718 by  tigersea
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Re: Suncor Energy to Acquire TotalEnergies' Canadian Operations for $5.5 Billion

suncor new presentation: https://sustainability-prd-cdn.suncor.com/-/media/project/suncor/files/investor-centre/investor-relations-presentations-2023/2023-04-26-investor-update-acquisition-of-total-canada-en.pdf?modified=20230427060326&_ga=2.136085809.1804883496.1682582362-1987422606.1682582362

quick and dirty calculation:

Price is C$5.5B-6.1B

"Conditional payment structure for a five-year term with a maximum potential payout of C$600M based on WCS pricing • Quarterly payment of US$6M for every dollar that WCS exceeds US$52/bbl during the quarter"

assuming U$15 WCS discount & 1.35 forex, average WTI will need to be lower than U$70.7 to not max out the C$600 cap, pretty much guarantee the final total will be $6.1B

tax pool $10.5B, value @ 23% ~= 2.4B value
 
flowing bbl 120,000/d(24E), $50,833 per flowing bbl using $6.1B price
 
2P reserve 2.1 billion bbl @ 135000/d = 42.6/y RLI
 
paying $2.76/bbl reserve

Comparison with MEG
market cap $6.2B, EV ~=$7.7B
production 100,000-105,000bbl/d
flowing bbl/d ~= $60,478
2P reserve 1.94billion bbl, ~= $3.2/2P bbl


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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
495721 Re: Suncor Energy to Acquire TotalEnergies' Canadian Operations for $5.5 Billion doomonyou 54 4/27/2023 5:46:41 AM
495763 Re: Suncor Energy to Acquire TotalEnergies' Canadian Operations for $5.5 Billion Victone 2 4/27/2023 9:57:37 AM




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