----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


*** SWITCHOVER NOTE: We are now in "Switchover", that time of year when withdrawals give way to injections in the spring
(and vice-versa in the fall) as we transition from withdrawal season to injection season... and the Spring "Shoulder Season".
For a variety of reasons, it is harder to model storage flows during switchover, so greater variance between EIA reporting and
gas-flow modeling is assumed, so a wider margin of error is assumed in Thursday's EIA reporting until injections prevail.

In actuality, however, the mildness of the 2023 winter coupled with the bearishness of 2023 baseline scoring has kept us
bumping into switchover time and again this winter, throwing off forcasting continually from EIA actuals. It is assumed that
that inaccuracy goes away by mid-April. It is also possible that Winter-2023 will give enough insight to improve baseline and
modeling significantly once through switchover.


"Best viewed at 14 pixel ""Font Size"", ""Fixed Width"" as set from the ""My IV"" Link"
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models)

=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
12/23/22...-26.5..-26.9...-29.8...-31.4...-31.8..-32.0...-34.6...-213.0.......-172.......-197......-213.........-215..............-135.........-87.......-175......-213
12/30/22...-41.3..-38.2...-36.4...-35.2...-30.3..-22.2...-17.3...-221.0.......-191.......-243......-221.........-205..............-311.......-216.......-308......-323
01/06/23......2.0......4.4......4.1......3.8......2.6.....-0.1....-5.6......11.0..........24..........14..........11...........-25..............-156.........-48......-155.......-167
01/13/23...-12.9..-14.5...-13.5...-11.6...-11.3....-9.2.....-8.9.....-82.0.........-97.........-80........-82.........-114................-20..........27.........-63.......-125
01/20/23...-14.4..-13.7...-11.4...-11.1...-11.3..-12.0...-12.2.....-86.0.......-100.........-88........-86.........-123.................97........128.........-19.........-70
01/27/23...-20.0..-19.7...-19.3...-21.5...-23.3..-22.7...-24.5...-151.0.......-134.......-144......-151.........-155...............213........155..........90.........-46
02/03/23...-26.9..-22.2...-26.6...-31.8...-38.8..-35.2...-35.6...-217.0.......-180.......-202......-217.........-208...............224........112........105.........-64
02/10/23...-29.2..-17.9...-12.7...-11.1.....-9.7..-10.4.....-9.0...-100.0.........-85.........-92......-100.........-119...............332........181........213............5
02/17/23...-12.2..-11.2...-10.9.....-9.4.....-8.3....-8.8...-10.2.....-71.0.........-77.........-65........-71...........-73...............395........284........264..........84
02/24/23...-15.9..-10.0.....-6.5.....-9.3...-13.1..-12.7...-13.5.....-81.0.........-92.........-74........-81...........-97...............435........339........290........129
03/03/23...-18.5..-14.3.....-8.9.....-9.9...-11.1....-9.5...-11.9.....-84.0.......-107.........-80........-84...........-97...............493........356........357........132
03/10/23.....-7.8....-6.8.....-6.1.....-6.5...-10.1..-10.2...-10.5.....-58.0.........-68.........-59........-58...........-76...............508........378........356........152
03/17/23...-10.1....-8.8.....-9.8...-12.1...-13.6..-11.0.....-6.5.....-72.0.........-83.........-78........-72...........-92...............513........352........366........127
03/24/23.....-6.4..-10.2...-10.4.....-8.8.....-5.0....-3.8.....-2.3.....-47.0.........-30.........-36........-47...........-60...............438........322........316........124
03/31/23.....-0.6....-0.2......1.1.....-2.8.....-5.6.....-5.9i....-1.9i.....-15.9........-11i........-16i........................-28...............453........303........355i.......119i
04/07/23......2.5i.....0.4i.....0.3i......0.1i....-0.1i....-0.1i....-0.1i........3.0i...........2i...........3i............................3...............458........305...........2i...........3i
Estimated EIA-weekly based storage (As of 03/31/23)........1840 BCF
..........................................................(As of 03/31/22)........1384 BCF...(+457 BCF YOY)
..........................................................(As of 03/31/21)........1785 BCF...( +55 BCF YOY)
..........................................................(As of 03/30/20)........2012 BCF...( -172 BCF YOY)
..........................................................(As of 03/31/19)........1145 BCF...(+695 BCF YOY)
..........................................................(As of 03/31/18)........1350 BCF...(+490 BCF YOY)



============================= EIA-Weighted Model Track Record =============================
...................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
.............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
........................................Capacity...Wkly...Wkly....Model......EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week...........Model....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date......S.Cent...East....West
....Run........Ending.............(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
12/09/20..(12/04/20)............-59..........-69.......-91......+22.......................12/10/20.....15.6.....8.1.....-0.8
12/16/20..(12/11/20)..........-110........-119.....-122........+3
12/23/20..(12/18/20)..........-117........-144.....-152........+8
12/30/20..(12/25/20)............-95........-113.....-114........+1
01/05/21..(01/01/21)..........-111........-122.....-130........+8
01/11/21..(01/08/21)..........-107........-117.....-134......+17
01/19/21..(01/15/21)..........-154........-172.....-187......+15
01/26/21..(01/22/21)..........-105........-121.....-128........+7
02/03/21..(01/29/21)..........-181........-184.....-192........+8
02/10/21..(02/05/21)..........-156........-175.....-171.........-4
02/17/21..(02/12/21)..........-198........-224.....-237......+13
02/24/21..(02/19/21)..........-282........-329.....-338........+9
02/28/21..(02/26/21)..........-123........-109.......-98.......-11
03/10/21..(03/05/21)............-71..........-45.......-52........+7
03/17/21..(03/12/21)............-29............-4.......-11........+7
03/24/21..(03/19/21)............-37..........-17.......-36......+19
03/29/21..(03/26/21).............18............29........14......+15
04/05/21..(04/02/21).............22............28........20........+8
04/13/21..(04/09/21).............49............73........61......+12
04/21/21..(04/16/21).............46............45........38........+7
04/28/21..(04/23/21)...............3..............1........15.......-14
05/05/21..(04/30/21).............58............51........60.........-9
05/12/21..(05/07/21).............68............77........71........+6
05/19/21..(05/14/21).............60............67........71.........-4
05/26/21..(05/21/21).............93..........108......115.........-7
06/01/21..(05/28/21).............94............97........98.........-1
06/09/21..(06/04/21).............98..........100........98........+2
06/16/21..(06/11/21).............58............69........67(K)...+2
06/23/21..(06/18/21).............66............62........55........+7
06/30/21..(06/25/21).............78............74........76.........-2
07/06/21..(07/02/21).............20............26........16......+10
07/13/21..(07/09/21).............58............50........55.........-5
07/21/21..(07/16/21).............37............40........49.........-9
07/28/21..(07/23/21).............40............39........36........+3........................................Unresolved Model
08/04/21..(07/30/21).............26............11........13.........-2.........................................Miss By Region
08/11/21..(08/06/21).............59............42........49.........-7......................................As of Date Evaluated
08/18/21..(08/13/21).............41............31........42(L)...-11.......................Date......S.Cent...East....West
08/25/21..(08/20/21).............34............32........29........+3....................Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
09/01/21..(08/27/21).............11............13........20.........-7.......................10/08/21......-2.1.....5.8......0.4
09/08/21..(09/03/21).............58............47........52.........-5.......................10/08/21......-1.1.....5.3.....-3.1
09/15/21..(09/10/21).............74............73(S)...83.......-10(S)..................10/08/21.......1.3.....3.5.....-3.0
09/22/21..(09/17/21).............55............53(S)...76.......-23(S)..................10/08/21.......7.9....-1.4.....-1.7
09/29/21..(09/24/21).............81............74(S)...88.......-14(S)..................10/08/21......-2.2....-1.5......1.1
10/06/21..(10/01/21)...........103............99(S).118.......-19(S)..................10/08/21.......0.2.....0.1.....-0.9
10/13/21..(10/08/21).............67............86........81........+5
10/20/21..(10/15/21).............65............84........92.........-6
10/27/21..(10/22/21).............69............81........87.........-6
11/03/21..(10/29/21).............53............66........63........+3
11/10/21..(11/05/21)..............-9..............5..........7.........-2
11/17/21..(11/12/21).............18............22........26.........-4
11/23/21..(11/19/21)............-31...........-30......-21.........-9
12/01/21..(11/26/21)............-69...........-64......-59.........-5
12/08/21..(12/03/21)............-30...........-43......-59......+16
12/15/21..(12/10/21)..........-114...........-99......-88.......-11
12/21/21..(12/17/21)............-49...........-62......-55.........-7
12/29/21..(12/24/21)..........-119.........-141....-136.........-5
01/05/22..(12/31/21)............-46...........-42......-31......+11
01/12/22..(01/07/22)..........-158.........-179....-179............
01/19/22..(01/14/22)..........-175.........-196....-206.......-10
01/26/22..(01/21/22)..........-190.........-214....-219.........-5
02/02/22..(01/28/22)..........-244.........-269....-268........+1
02/09/22..(02/04/22)..........-198.........-230....-222........+8
02/16/22..(02/11/22)..........-172.........-193....-190........+3
02/23/22..(02/18/22)..........-124.........-128....-129.........-1
03/02/22..(02/25/22)..........-142.........-135....-139.........-4

...................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
.............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
........................................Capacity...Wkly...Wkly....Model......EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week...........Model....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date......S.Cent...East....West
....Run........Ending.............(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
03/09/22..(03/04/22)..........-113.........-125....-124..........1
03/16/22..(03/11/22)............-82...........-79......-79............
03/23/22..(03/18/22)............-62...........-52......-51..........1
03/30/22..(03/25/22).............17............23........26..........3
04/06/22..(04/01/22)............-48...........-31......-33.........-2
04/14/22..(04/08/22)...............1............24........15........+9
04/20/22..(04/15/22).............42............51........53.........-2
04/27/22..(04/22/22).............28............43........40........+3
05/04/22..(04/29/22).............69............79........77........+2
05/11/22..(05/06/22).............75............80........76........+4
05/18/22..(05/13/22).............82............92........89........+3
05/25/22..(05/20/22).............89............87........87............
06/02/22..(05/27/22).............90............81........82.........-1
06/09/22..(06/03/22).............95............95......102.........-7
06/15/22..(06/10/22).............95............92........92............
06/22/22..(06/17/22).............72............59........74.......-15.......................06/30/22......-9.4....-2.8.....-3.5
06/29/22..(06/24/22).............85............69........82.......-13.......................06/30/22......-3.6....-6.2.....-1.9
07/06/22..(07/01/22).............70............59........60.........-1
07/12/22..(07/08/22).............56............45........58.......-13
07/20/22..(07/15/22).............49............37........32........+5
07/27/22..(07/22/22).............24............11........15.........-4
08/03/22..(07/29/22).............53............41........41............
08/10/22..(08/05/22).............45............38........44.........-6
08/17/22..(08/12/22).............29............14........18.........-4
08/24/22..(08/19/22).............66............59........60.........-1
08/31/22..(08/26/22).............53............59........61.........-2
09/07/22..(09/02/22).............48............53........54.........-1
09/14/22..(09/09/22).............67............77........77............
09/21/22..(09/16/22).............88............99......103.........-4
09/28/22..(09/23/22).............86..........101......103.........-2
10/05/22..(09/30/22)...........107..........130......129........+1
10/12/22..(10/07/22)...........104..........126......125........+1
10/19/22..(10/14/22).............93..........107......111.........-4
10/26/22..(10/21/22).............35............55........52........+3
11/02/22..(10/28/22).............56..........102......107.........-5
11/09/22..(11/04/22).............80............83........79........+4
11/16/22..(11/11/22).............54............66........64........+2
11/22/22..(11/18/22)............-75...........-91.......-80.......-11
11/30/22..(11/25/22)............-72...........-80.......-81........+1
12/07/22..(12/02/22)............-28...........-36.......-21.......-15
12/14/22..(12/09/22)............-50...........-53.......-50.........-3
12/21/22..(12/16/22)..........-100...........-90.......-87.........-3
12/28/22..(12/23/22)..........-170.........-196.....-213......+17.......................12/29/22......-5.9..-14.3....+3.1
01/04/23..(12/30/22)..........-191.........-244.....-221.......-23
01/10/23..(01/06/23).............23............16.........11........+5
01/18/23..(01/13/23)............-97...........-74.......-82........+8
01/25/23..(01/20/23)..........-100...........-80.......-86........+6
02/01/23..(01/27/23)..........-134.........-131.....-151......+20.......................02/16/23.....10.0....-0.8.....-0.1
02/08/23..(02/03/23)..........-180.........-192.....-217 +25.......................02/16/23.....15.1.....3.1......2.1
02/15/23..(02/10/23)............-85...........-82.....-100......+18.......................03/02/23.......2.9...10.9......0.1
02/22/23..(02/17/23)............-77...........-54.......-71......+17.......................03/02/23.......5.0.....8.9......1.7
03/01/23..(02/24/23)............-92...........-65.......-81......+16.......................03/02/23.......1.8...10.6.....-0.9
03/08/23..(03/03/23)..........-107...........-73.......-84......+11
03/15/23..(03/10/23)............-68...........-52.......-58........+6
03/22/23..(03/17/23)............-83...........-78.......-72.........-6
03/29/23..(03/24/23)............-30...........-36.......-47......+11
03/31/23..(03/31/23)............-11i..........-16i........??...................(Projection for next week's EIA report is incomplete)
03/31/23..(04/07/23)...............2i.............3i........??...................(Projection for the following week's EIA report is very incomplete)

......(K) For purposes of analysis, the EIA's reported "Implied Flow" (67 BCF) is used, rather than the EIA's "Net Change".
......(L) For purposes of analysis, the EIA's reported "Implied Flow" (42 BCF) is used, rather than the EIA's "Net Change".
......(S) An error caused the EIA-weighted model to underreport by 9, 17, 18, and 21 BCF for weeks ending 9/10, 9/17, 9/24 and 10/01.



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the
.......................................EIA's weekly data.

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly
..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA
..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model)
..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily
..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way
..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered
..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methadology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007.
.......................................(Also called the "2007 Model")

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly,
..............................EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially,
..............................the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented
..............................then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA
..............................monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by
..............................the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments
..............................removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.