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Energy Investing
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Daily Gas Flows (Part 3- LT Model)------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ==========US Longer-Term Model============ ......2022 Spring.....1382 BCF*....Fall..3644 BCF* ......2023 Spring.....1878 BCF.....Fall..4844 BCF ......2024 Spring.....2724 BCF.....Fall..5717 BCF ......2025 Spring.....3571 BCF.....Fall..6591 BCF ......*=Actuals for weeks ended 04/01/22 and 11/17/22 ____Run____F-18_S-19____Run____S-19_F-19____Run____F-19_S-20____Run____S-20_F-20____Run____F-20_S-21____Run____S-21_F-21____Run____F-21_S-22____Run____S-22_F-22____Run____F-22_S-23____Run____S-23_F-23 05/08/18....3467..1122........n/a...............................04/11/19....3784..1694....11/27/19....1758..4791....04/17/20....4150..1608....11/27/20....1176....2795....04/13/21....4414....2107....11/24/21....1113....3315....04/17/22....3745....1300....11/24/22....1519....4517 05/16/18....3492..1155....11/28/18......960..3582....04/18/19....3858..1775....12/05/19....1775..4819....04/23/20....4353..1947....12/04/20....1295....3001....04/22/21....4280....1895....12/02/21....1117....3334....04/21/22....3731....1286....12/01/22....1477....4498 05/23/18....3475..1122........n/a...............................04/25/19....3852..1742....12/12/19....1769..4819....04/30/20....4539..2259....12/10/20....1291....2978....04/28/21....4094....1616....12/09/21....1111....3279....04/29/22....3821....1447....12/08/22....1518....4566 05/30/18....3417..1020....11/28/18....1112..4012....05/02/19....3995..1953....12/19/19....1751..4754....05/07/20....4692..2493....12/17/20....1341....3061....05/06/21....4212....1825....12/16/21....1149....3302....05/05/22....3827....1454....12/15/22....1560....4606 06/06/18....3401....992....12/20/18....1142..4144....05/10/19....4054..2053....12/27/19....1677..4604....05/14/20....4845..2746....12/24/20....1379....3157....05/13/21....4078....1598....12/23/21....1279....3493....05/12/22....3768....1359....12/22/22....1631....4744 06/13/18....3385....969....12/29/18....1231..4274....05/16/19....4109..2139....01/03/20....1721..4597....05/21/20....4891..2839....12/31/20....1485....3372....05/21/21....3870....1230....12/30/21....1299....3501....05/19/22....3823....1458....12/29/22....1528....4602 06/20/18....3359....932....01/05/19....1354..4421....05/25/19....4131..2185....01/09/20....1786..4606....05/28/20....4910..2871....01/05/21....1561....3549....05/27/21....3919....1311....01/06/22....1462....3763....05/26/22....3737....1322....01/05/23....1383....4319 06/27/18....3355....946....01/10/19....1378..4405....05/30/19....4162..2239....01/17/20....1927..4698....06/04/20....4890..2860....01/15/21....1642....3726....06/03/21....3828....1137....01/13/22....1468....3793....06/02/22....3712....1295....01/10/23....1570....4576 07/04/18....3413..1061....01/17/19....1462..4531....06/08/19....4168..2261....01/23/20....1895..4614....06/11/20....4890..2878....01/19/21....1676....3775....06/11/21....3840....1159....01/20/22....1457....3781....06/09/22....3681....1249....01/19/23....1684....4779 07/11/18....3351....997....01/24/19....1466..4532....06/14/19....4097..2141....01/30/20....1831..4415....06/18/20....4835..2806....01/28/21....1748....3938....06/17/21....3749....1054....01/27/22....1451....3800....06/16/22....3640....1178....01/26/23....1799....4981 07/18/18....3304....920....01/31/19....1486..4698....06/20/19....4065..2083....02/06/20....1837..4283....06/25/20....4837..2805....02/04/21....1767....3995....06/23/21....3720....1016....02/03/22....1370....3678....06/23/22....3660....1237....02/02/23....1819....4987 07/25/18....3208....765....02/07/19....1403..4607....06/27/19....3982..1934....02/13/20....1860..4157....07/02/20....4674..2532....02/12/21....1785....4014....07/01/21....3696......984....02/10/22....1333....3617....06/30/22....3630....1189....02/09/23....1749....4829 08/02/18....3208....775....02/14/19....1472..4702....07/04/19....3964..1904....02/20/20....1826..3981....07/09/20....4542..2308....02/18/21....1735....4077....07/08/21....3578......804....02/17/22....1312....3589....07/07/22....3546....1042....02/16/23....1793....4837 08/08/18....3191....749....02/21/19....1384..4461....07/11/19....3898..1805....02/27/20....1769..3728....07/16/20....4413..2088....02/25/21....1508....3720....07/15/21....3526......720....02/24/22....1334....3640....07/14/22....3481......934....02/23/23....1836....4809 08/15/18....3177....741....02/28/19....1301..4272....07/18/19....3831..1696....03/05/20....1776..3703....07/24/20....4308..1901....03/04/21....1548....3980....07/22/21....3505......687....03/03/22....1322....3678....07/21/22....3431......860....03/02/23....1847....4690 08/22/18....3141....661....03/07/19....1231..4126....07/25/19....3779..1634....03/12/20....1841..3772....07/30/20....4240..1784....03/12/21....1616....4080....07/29/21....3461......592....03/10/22....1307....3659....07/28/22....3378......786....03/09/23....1860....4739 08/28/18....3134....624....03/14/19....1087..3809....08/01/19....3797..1677....03/19/20....1918..3784....08/06/20....4219..1770....03/18/21....1699....4252....08/06/21....3379......428....03/17/22....1322....3574....08/04/22....3425......906....03/16/23....1898....4920 09/05/18....3158....708....03/21/19....1107..3766....08/08/19....3758..1606....03/26/20....1954..3789....08/13/20....4241..1819....03/26/21....1725....4377....08/12/21....3372......381....03/24/22....1340....3556....08/11/22....3464....1007....03/23/23....1878....4844 09/13/18....3155....724....03/28/19....1098..3729....08/15/19....3722..1542....04/02/20....1973..3780....08/20/20....4203..1760....04/02/21....1764....4478....08/19/21....3388......417....03/31/22....1389....3649....08/18/22....3417......949....03/24/23....1878....4844 09/20/18....3144....683....04/04/19....1107..3788....08/23/19....3708..1528....04/09/20....1986..3943....08/27/20....4170..1699....04/08/21....1750....4437....08/27/21....3354......332....04/07/22....1382....3633....08/25/22....3407......940 09/25/18....3107....642............................................08/29/19....3709..1553............................................09/03/20....4111..1600..............................................09/02/21....3334......327..............................................09/01/22....3377......863 10/03/18....3143....736............................................09/05/19....3719..1591............................................09/10/20....4133..1683..............................................09/09/21....3355......402..............................................09/08/22....3351......829 10/10/18......n/a......n/a............................................09/12/19....3689..1540............................................09/16/20....4133..1712..............................................09/16/21....3409......574..............................................09/15/22....3354......886 10/17/18....3199....898............................................09/19/19....3682..1541............................................09/24/20....4111..1668..............................................09/22/21....3440......682..............................................09/22/22....3382......944 10/24/18....3194....925............................................09/26/19....3708..1614............................................10/01/20....4099..1641..............................................09/30/21....3476......780..............................................09/29/22....3427....1082 10/31/18....3188....980............................................10/03/19....3731..1667............................................10/08/20....4080..1575..............................................10/07/21....3538......926..............................................10/06/22....3479....1210 11/07/18....3209..1017............................................10/10/19....3736..1688............................................10/15/20....4039..1463..............................................10/14/21....3554......969..............................................10/13/22....3519....1284 11/13/18....3222..1034............................................10/17/19....3756..1738............................................10/22/20....4013..1367..............................................10/21/21....3580....1022..............................................10/20/22....3543....1336 ................................................................................10/24/19....3764..1787............................................10/30/20....3990..1310..............................................10/28/21....3611....1023..............................................10/27/22....3525....1362 ................................................................................10/31/19....3786..1830............................................11/05/20....3955..1185..............................................11/05/21....3630....1085..............................................11/03/22....3569....1474 ................................................................................11/06/19....3755..1757............................................11/12/20....3955..1151..............................................11/10/21....3618....1098..............................................11/10/22....3605....1522 ................................................................................11/14/19....3734..1801............................................11/20/20....3958..1152..............................................11/18/21....3644....1089..............................................11/17/22....3644....1576 ................................................................................11/21/19....3732..1756 ....Longer-Term Model Storage Projections... ...Week.........Normal.......Projected Storage _Ending____D-Days__Change___Inventory 03/10/23.......154.0.......-58 BCF.....1972 BCF 03/17/23.......142.9.......-72 BCF.....1900 BCF 03/24/23.......129.1.......-22 BCF.....1878 BCF 03/31/23.......117.1..........9 BCF.....1886 BCF 04/07/23.......107.0........32 BCF.....1918 BCF 04/14/23.........97.3........49 BCF.....1967 BCF 04/21/23.........89.1........74 BCF.....2040 BCF 04/28/23.........81.1........89 BCF.....2128 BCF 05/05/23.........74.7......102 BCF.....2230 BCF 05/12/23.........69.3......110 BCF.....2339 BCF 05/19/23.........65.3......120 BCF.....2459 BCF 05/26/23.........63.3......124 BCF.....2582 BCF 06/02/23.........62.5......129 BCF.....2711 BCF 06/09/23.........63.0......123 BCF.....2833 BCF 06/16/23.........64.3......116 BCF.....2948 BCF 06/23/23.........66.0......117 BCF.....3065 BCF 06/30/23.........68.0......103 BCF.....3168 BCF 07/07/23.........70.3......112 BCF.....3279 BCF 07/14/23.........72.3........88 BCF.....3367 BCF 07/21/23.........73.7........79 BCF.....3445 BCF 07/28/23.........74.0........75 BCF.....3520 BCF 08/04/23.........73.5........77 BCF.....3597 BCF 08/11/23.........72.6........76 BCF.....3673 BCF 08/18/23.........71.4........85 BCF.....3757 BCF 08/25/23.........69.7........90 BCF.....3846 BCF 09/01/23.........67.3........97 BCF.....3943 BCF 09/08/23.........64.8......115 BCF.....4058 BCF 09/15/23.........62.7......109 BCF.....4166 BCF 09/22/23.........62.3......111 BCF.....4276 BCF 09/29/23.........63.4......115 BCF.....4391 BCF 10/06/23.........66.2......107 BCF.....4498 BCF 10/13/23.........70.0......104 BCF.....4602 BCF 10/20/23.........77.9........87 BCF.....4688 BCF 10/27/23.........84.5........80 BCF.....4768 BCF 11/03/23.........94.7........52 BCF.....4819 BCF 11/10/23.......106.3........26 BCF.....4844 BCF 11/17/23.......119.1.........-2 BCF.....4842 BCF 11/24/23.......132.3.......-24 BCF.....4817 BCF 12/01/23.......143.3.......-45 BCF.....4771 BCF 12/08/23.......156.4.......-88 BCF.....4683 BCF 12/15/23.......168.5.....-130 BCF.....4552 BCF 12/22/23.......181.6.....-139 BCF.....4412 BCF 12/29/23.......188.2.....-131 BCF.....4281 BCF Note- US Longer-Term Model projections are not "Predictions", but are extrapolations carried forward (based upon the previous 10 weeks estimated supply/demand balance & energy pricing) to either a reasonable or unreasonable conclusion. As this model is intended for the long-term, MMS/hurricane curtailments are projected on a fully-restored basis. |
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