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Daily Gas Flows (US Economy)....(Note: For older data see https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=19168&mn=482996&pt=msg&mid=23916494)........ . Daily Strength of the Global, and US Non-Urban Economies . ...............................................................................................................US Overall ........................Global...............US..............US............US............US.......Non-Urban ......................Industrial.........Industrial.....Personal.....Durable.......Food.......Economic ..................Production(1)....Production.Consumption...Goods......Group(2)...Strength(3).................News and Events 01/01/23......-11261............181.1........186.7........71.7........140.4.......+2....New Years Day Holiday 01/02/23......-10377............181.2........187.0........72.0........139.9.......+4 01/03/23........-4479............181.3........187.0........72.2........139.5.......+3 01/04/23.........3776............181.4........189.2........72.3........139.6.......+2....Bloomberg: "Fed Affirms Inflation Resolve, Pushes Back on Rate-Cut Bets", (FOMC Minutes) 01/05/23..........-869............181.4........190.5........72.3........140.1.........0.....Bloomberg: "The US Keeps Offering China Its Covid Vaccines. China Keeps Saying No." 01/06/23........-2372............181.2........191.9........72.3........140.2........-1....Bloomberg: "Fed Gets ‘Goldilocks’ in Jobs Report: Slower Wage Growth, Solid Hiring" 01/07/23..........-566............181.0........191.2........72.1........140.3........-4 01/08/23........-4302............180.9........190.5........72.1........140.5........-3 01/09/23........-2332............180.8........189.6........72.1........140.8........-3 01/10/23........-3203............180.7........188.5........72.2........141.0........-2 01/11/23........-6034............180.8........188.2........72.3........141.2.........0 01/12/23........-9977............180.9........188.9........72.4........141.3.......+2....US CPI Inflation Report (Dec): +6.5% YOY, -0.1% MOM; Core +5.7% YOY, +0.3% MOM. (Dow +220) 01/13/23......-11404............180.9........189.0........72.4........141.7.........0 01/14/23......-10583............180.9........190.5........72.5........141.7.......+2 01/15/23........-9313............180.8........191.7........72.4........141.7........-1 01/16/23......-14637............180.8........192.9........72.5........141.6.......+3....Martin Luther King Holiday 01/17/23......-10928............180.6........194.8........72.6........141.3.......+2 01/18/23........-8915............180.5........195.2........72.7........140.8.......+2....CNBC: "Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in December, much more than expected; retail sales fall" 01/19/23........-9710............180.4........195.3........72.9........140.6.......+2....Federal debt limit reached today. 01/20/23......-10038............180.9........194.8........73.4........140.6.......+1 01/21/23........-8854............181.6........193.4........74.0........140.0.......+2 01/22/23........-1444............182.2........192.6........74.4........140.0.......+1....Chinese Lunar New Year Begins (7-Day-long global industrial slowdown & winter cold phase starts) 01/23/23.........2764............182.7........190.8........74.6........139.8.......+2 01/24/23.........1662............183.0........190.3........74.7........139.8.......+1 01/25/23........-5960............183.4........190.4........74.6........138.8.......+2 01/26/23........-4729............183.6........192.0........74.7........138.6.......+4 01/27/23..........-725............183.9........190.6........74.9........138.9.........0....US Consumer Spending down 0.2% in December, revised from +0.1 to -0.1 in November. 01/28/23........-3561............184.2........190.8........75.2........139.4.......+2....Bloomberg: "Capital goods orders fell in December, 4Q inventories built up" 01/29/23.........2275............184.5........192.1........75.3........139.6.......+2....Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday Shutdowns End. 01/30/23.........4726............184.7........192.5........75.3........139.7.......+1 01/31/23.........1842............184.8........192.2........75.2........139.7........-1 . ...............................................................................................................US Overall ........................Global...............US..............US............US............US.......Non-Urban ......................Industrial.........Industrial.....Personal.....Durable.......Food.......Economic ..................Production(1)....Production.Consumption...Goods......Group(2)...Strength(3).................News and Events 02/01/23.........4263............185.0........189.2........75.7........139.5.......+2....Fed hikes F-Funds .25% (to 4.50% to 4.75%), CNBC quotes possible stop below 5.00%. (Dow +7) 02/02/23.........1265............185.3........186.5........76.3........139.4.......+2 02/03/23...........498............185.7........183.9........76.8........139.6.........0 02/04/23..........-674............186.0........183.4........77.3........139.6.......+1....U.S. downs a claimed Chinese spy balloon in waters off South Carolina Observance Continues 02/05/23........-3972............186.3........181.8........77.9........139.8.........0....Chinese New Year Concludes (Lantern Day) 02/06/23........-3891............186.8........181.1........78.5........140.0.........0 02/07/23..........-187............187.1........182.4........78.9........140.2.......+2 02/08/23.........1798............187.2........183.5........79.4........140.5.......+2 02/09/23........-1000............187.3........185.0........79.8........140.7.......+2 02/10/23.........2216............187.3........186.2........80.1........140.9.......+1....US claims downed an unidentified object 40,000 feet over Alaska. 02/11/23.........8541............187.2........186.4........80.5........141.7.........0....Bloomberg: "Airborne Object Shot Down Over Canada in Escalating Aerial Drama" (2nd UFO-like object) 02/12/23.........7898............187.1........187.2........80.9........142.3.........0....Bloomberg: "US Fighter Jet Downs Fourth Aerial Object Over North America" (Near Lake Huron) 02/13/23.........5806............187.2........188.4........81.2........143.1.......+2....Bloomberg: "US Has ‘No Indication’ Alien Activity Behind Objects Shot Down" 02/14/23.........6502............187.5........188.2........81.5........144.0.........0....US CPI Inflation Dissappoints: Jan +6.4% YOY, +0.5% MOM; Core +5.6% YOY, +0.4% MOM. Dow -160. 02/15/23.........8819............187.9........189.1........81.9........145.0.......+2....January Retail Sales come in hot, climb 3% in January. 02/16/23.........8952............188.4........188.0........82.2........145.9.........0....January Producer Prices come in hot, climb 7% in January. 02/17/23.......10150............189.0........190.1........82.6........146.7.......+2 02/18/23.........7870............189.5........191.8........83.0........147.6.......+2 02/19/23.........4695............189.8........192.8........83.4........148.6.......+2 02/20/23.........2896............190.1........194.5........83.8........149.7.......+2....President Biden visits Ukraine & Poland as imminent escalation and February 23rd anniversary approach. 02/21/23.........4247............190.2........196.2........84.2........150.4.......+2....Russia announces suspension of last nuclear START treaty with US, condemns west's "Double-Dealing". 02/22/23.........5195............190.1........198.2........84.4........151.2.........0....Bloomberg: "US Housing Market Posts $2.3 Trillion Drop, Biggest Since 2008" 02/23/23.......12516............190.0........198.1........84.4........151.7........-3....Year ago Putin orders military to protect Donbas from Ukraine, today Biden adds troops to protect Taiwan. 02/24/23.......20021............190.0........198.2........84.5........151.6.......+3 02/25/23.......18147............190.2........196.6........84.8........151.2.......+2....The Jerusalem Post: "Russia halts pipeline oil supplies to Poland after tank transfer to Ukraine" 02/26/23.........9075............190.2........195.3........85.2........150.4.......+1 02/27/23.........4102............190.2........195.0........85.6........149.7.......+1 02/28/23.........3863............189.9........196.2........85.9........149.0.......+2 . ...............................................................................................................US Overall ........................Global...............US..............US............US............US.......Non-Urban ......................Industrial.........Industrial.....Personal.....Durable.......Food.......Economic ..................Production(1)....Production.Consumption...Goods......Group(2)...Strength(3).................News and Events 03/01/23.........5550............189.8........198.9........85.5........148.5.........003/02/23.........3854............189.6........199.9........85.0........148.1.........0 03/03/23.........9030............189.6........200.2........84.6........147.7.......+1 03/04/23.........3557............189.4........201.3........83.7........147.4.........0 03/05/23........-2901............189.3........203.5........82.8........146.9.........0 03/06/23........-5818............189.1........205.6........81.8........146.4.........0 03/07/23........-9879............188.9........206.9........80.8........145.5.........0 03/08/23........-6075............188.8........206.9........80.0........145.0........-1 03/09/23........-3958............188.9........205.8........79.4........144.5.........003/10/23........-7679............189.1........206.0........78.4........143.7.......+2....February Jobs Data comes in hot... SVB Bank Collapses (largest bank failure since 2008). 03/11/23......-13910............189.2........205.4........77.4........143.1.........0....Bloomberg: "From Santa Clara to Shoreditch, SVB Fallout Spreads Around World" 03/12/23........-4053............189.3........204.7........76.3........142.5.........0....CNBC: "Regulators close New York's Signature Bank, citing systemic risk" 03/13/23........-8577............189.2........203.3........75.1........141.4........-2 03/14/23......-10515............188.8........202.3........73.9........140.5........-2....February CPI near January's, +6.0% YOY, +0.4% MOM; Core +6.0% YOY, +0.5% MOM. Dow +340. 03/15/23........-9897............188.5........200.8........72.5........139.4........-2....February Producer Prices come in cool, drop 1% in February. Dow -280. 03/16/23........-9624............188.2........202.8........71.2........138.5.........0....Credit Suisse gets $54 billion lifeline, First Republic $30 billion, to avoid collapse in banking crysis. 03/17/23........-2956............187.7........201.9........70.1........137.8........-2....Reuters: "Ukraine war: International court issues warrant for Putin's arrest" 03/18/23........-5577............187.4........200.6........69.3........136.8........-203/19/23..........-871............187.2........199.4........68.5........135.7........-2....Credit Swiss Collapses, Fed Reserve, others brace- converting temporary liquidity swaps to standing. 03/20/23........-3332............187.0........199.1........67.9........134.2........-2....Bloomberg: "First Republic Dives 47% to Record Low on Downgrade, Bank Talks" 03/21/23........-2675............187.1........197.0........67.3........133.8.........0 03/22/23..........-641............187.3........194.6........67.1........133.4.........0....Bloomberg: "Coinbase Gets SEC Notice Signaling Intent to Sue Over Crypto Offerings" 03/23/23........-1115............187.6........193.2........67.0........133.0.........0 03/24/23...........855p..........187.7........193.7........66.9........133.1.........0 . .........Green......Indicates strengthening / expansionary trend (and global warming for the Global Industrial Production Model). ...........Red.......Indicates weakening / contracting trend (and global cooling for the Global Industrial Production Model). .........r...Revised. ........p...Projected (Significant data outstanding). .......(1)..Global data is from the global warming model (from icecap, snowpack, and sea-ice satellite data), ..............and is counter-cyclical (strengthens in contracting economies, softens in expanding economies). .......(2)..Food-group is counter-cyclical (strengthens in contracting economies, softens in expanding economies). .......(3)..Rank ranges from +4 (Most bullish) to -4 (Most bearish) . . . ===============================Monthly.US Consumption Model.(MMCF/Day)============================== ....................Total US Consumption....................................US-Sourced..........................................Foreign-Sourced............... ..........2018....2019....2020....2021....2022........2018....2019....2020....2021....2022........2018....2019....2020....2021....2022 .........=====..=====..=====..=====..=====....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..===== 01......73.03...64.21...66.78...71.29...69.32.....26.52...27.15...27.26...29.78...28.41..... 46.52.. 37.06.. 39.52.. 41.51.. 40.91. 02......66.75...59.38...64.74...76.67...71.20.....21.36...21.98...25.02...34.03...28.88..... 45.39.. 37.40.. 39.72.. 42.64.. 42.32. 03......65.44...61.72...60.87...73.19...69.10i....21.66...26.87...24.58...32.72...30.22i.... 43.78.. 34.85.. 36.29.. 40.47.. 38.87i. 04......61.59...58.50...68.70...64.75..................20.24...24.38...32.57...29.65.................. 41.35.. 34.12.. 36.13.. 35.10.. .......... 05......61.21...58.93...66.20...64.57..................22.27...26.29...33.16...26.87.................. 38.94.. 32.64.. 33.05.. 37.70.. .......... 06......57.76...56.83...71.52...61.88..................26.66...24.65...37.49...27.92.................. 31.10.. 32.18.. 34.03.. 33.95.. .......... 07......55.91...61.06...65.07...64.16..................24.09...24.85...33.34...30.62.................. 31.83.. 36.21.. 31.74.. 33.53.. .......... 08......55.81...55.74...65.63...61.43..................24.01...21.85...32.19...27.26.................. 31.80.. 33.88.. 33.44.. 34.17.. .......... 09......54.84...61.26...61.73...64.97..................23.70...26.08...30.07...26.83.................. 31.14.. 35.18.. 31.66.. 38.14.. .......... 10......53.98...58.85...59.13...57.38..................23.45...24.63...27.47...23.52.................. 30.54.. 34.22.. 31.66.. 33.86.. .......... 11......60.96...63.41...62.36...63.75..................25.65...25.79...25.44...25.47.................. 35.30.. 37.62.. 36.91.. 38.28.. .......... 12......60.22...64.57...69.37...64.57..................25.24...25.43...30.11...24.19.................. 34.97.. 39.14.. 39.26.. 40.38.. .......... . . . =============Daily Total US Cunsumption Model (BCF)============= _Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total 01/20/23....76.22....75.08....76.17....76.17....71.35....76.77....55.03....506.79 01/27/23....62.05....71.10....59.94....73.05....66.42....80.35....61.98....474.88 02/03/23....79.30....79.30....72.42....62.27....52.40....61.99....58.98....466.66 02/10/23....65.32....53.68....57.12....73.38....75.54....88.12....73.52....486.68 02/17/23....79.34....80.30....82.38....65.87....72.23....55.09....71.26....506.45 02/24/23....74.34....77.79....75.75....93.29....89.38....82.01....67.63....560.19 03/03/23....65.22....64.80....65.18....71.71....75.10....68.64....59.56....470.20 03/10/23....76.95....77.63....77.21....82.98....70.82....67.83....72.48....525.90 03/17/23....70.18....70.18....70.57....59.84....60.86....79.93....63.25....474.82 03/24/23....64.03....66.96....71.44....67.74....59.93....49.42....74.78....454.30 __________________________Year_Ago__________________________ 03/18/22....72.56....75.11....72.61....76.96....75.38....75.71....75.52....523.84 03/25/22....69.07....69.07....69.07....74.24....72.24....73.06....74.28....501.03 04/01/22....76.87....79.59....74.16....68.04....68.05....67.21....65.84....499.75 04/08/22....65.42....65.42....65.42....66.45....68.95....67.48....68.16....467.28 04/15/22....69.10....69.10....69.10....65.91....64.72....65.54....65.29....468.75 . . . ============Daily US-Sourced Cunsumption Model (BCF)============= _Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total 01/20/23....35.76....35.76....38.03....38.03....26.91....29.73....17.13....221.36 01/27/23....21.80....30.85....22.20....36.34....30.48....38.57....26.69....206.93 02/03/23....38.73....38.73....28.19....17.72....15.00....25.91....20.87....185.16 02/10/23....26.88....16.95....17.12....26.68....26.68....38.59....24.99....177.90 02/17/23....36.79....36.79....36.79....21.03....33.65....17.18....36.12....218.35 02/24/23....33.02....35.85....33.81....51.35....46.71....39.36....19.09....259.18 03/03/23....21.19....20.77....21.15....28.19....35.23....27.58....17.58....171.68 03/10/23....36.45....37.13....38.44....44.59....34.72....31.83....36.48....259.64 03/17/23....36.48....36.48....36.48....25.14....26.15....38.60....25.57....224.89 03/24/23....25.92....25.99....24.94....25.61....17.44....11.25....29.31....160.47 __________________________Year_Ago__________________________ 03/18/22....35.25....35.25....35.25....36.24....34.78....34.90....34.51....246.19 03/25/22....28.80....28.80....28.80....33.77....33.79....34.13....34.13....222.22 04/01/22....36.15....36.15....35.53....18.84....19.86....18.07....31.61....196.22 04/08/22....31.25....31.25....31.25....31.25....31.20....31.20....31.20....218.57 04/15/22....31.16....31.16....31.16....30.07....28.97....29.00....31.86....213.37 . . . ==========Daily Foreign-Sourced Cunsumption Model (BCF)=========== _Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total 01/20/23....40.45....39.32....38.14....38.14....44.44....47.04....37.90....285.43 01/27/23....40.26....40.26....37.74....36.71....35.93....41.78....35.28....267.95 02/03/23....40.57....40.57....44.23....44.56....37.40....36.08....38.10....281.50 02/10/23....38.45....36.72....40.00....46.69....48.86....49.53....48.52....308.77 02/17/23....42.55....43.51....45.59....44.84....38.58....37.91....35.13....288.11 02/24/23....41.32....41.94....41.94....41.94....42.67....42.66....48.54....301.01 03/03/23....44.03....44.03....44.03....43.53....39.87....41.06....41.98....298.53 03/10/23....40.50....40.50....38.77....38.40....36.10....36.00....36.00....266.26 03/17/23....33.70....33.70....34.10....34.71....34.71....41.34....37.68....249.93 03/24/23....38.12....40.97....46.50....42.12....42.49....38.17....45.47....293.83 __________________________Year_Ago__________________________ 03/18/22....37.31....39.86....37.35....40.71....40.60....40.81....41.01....277.65 03/25/22....40.27....40.27....40.27....40.48....38.44....38.93....40.15....278.81 04/01/22....40.72....43.44....38.62....49.20....48.19....49.14....34.23....303.53 04/08/22....34.17....34.17....34.17....35.21....37.75....36.28....36.97....248.72 04/15/22....37.94....37.94....37.94....35.84....35.75....36.54....33.42....255.38 |
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