In December I started a new job & left the Permian for an exploration role deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Part of my concern was being type casted as “only an unconventional geo”… another part of that was seeing the pain that was coming as the primary inventory numbers dwindled. By my calculations of rig years (22 10k wells/yr per rig) the mining operation (primary Wolfcamp locations) would end in mid-2024. The stacked pay fallacy would then burn management as they enter the fickle hybrid plays of the bone spring, where well performance will be less predictable & the mining operation they are accustomed to wax the predictability and repeatability.

I received this text from a former manager yesterday. I thought it was worth sharing as the Permian has been the growth engine for much of the world & likely is bullish for those long in the energy space.

“The Business Unit can’t deliver on primary (WFMP inventory) anymore. New Director said we have the worst metrics in the company. The train is already off the rails & mgmt sees it, they just can’t see the cliff they’re headed to.”