If asked last 6th Feb what oil price would be given,

- invasion of Ukraine & its flattening with 18 -20 million refugees housed & supported around Europe

- NATO essentially at war with Russia & supplying billions in arms to back Ukraine.

- Sanctions on export of ALL oil & product from Russia.

- Effectively empty SPR.

- No nuclear deal with Iran

- China floating surveillance balloons across mainland U.S. & Russia sending hypersonic missiles into West Atlantic.

- Inflation in BOTH U.S. & Europe and increasing debt

etc., etc., I for one would have had no hesitation in saying that oil price would be north of $150,- AND BOTH U.S. & Europe would be in serious recession/depression.

But then everything in Weimar was ok, until it wasn't.
But then there are always REASONS to justify why one is really right, even when wrong!
Perhaps it is doubt that keeps us sane and from going broke.