Energy Investing - Daily Gas Flows (Part 7- Demand) - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


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Msg  479325 of 489704  at  1/30/2023 11:06:54 PM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 7- Demand)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


01/30/23 NOTE: Monthly tabulations in both the Part-6 (Supply) and Part-7 (Demand) posts are down tonight
pending modeling changes, and are unchanged from the January 29th. Daily modeling is up to date for the
moment, though all models in the part 6&7 posts are intended to be replaced with new functionality shortly.

=========================================================Monthly.US.Dry-Gas.Demand.Models.(BCF/Day)========================================================
.......................................................................................Residential.and
........................Net.US.Demand.................................Commercial.Demand.............................Generation.Demand..............................Industrial.Demand....................................Storage.Demand...............
____ 2019__2020__2021__2022__2023__ 2019__2020__2021__2022__2023__ 2019__2020__2021__2022__2023__ 2019__2020__2021__2022__2023___ 2019__ 2020__2021__2022__2023
01....95.59...96.41...93.12...93.27...96.16i...40.31...34.10...33.84...36.28...24.75i...36.36...39.66...40.02...43.12...43.29i....40.74...40.82...42.05...45.32...43.27i...-21.82..-18.16..-22.78..-31.45..-15.16i
02....93.61...95.32...90.86...92.98................37.14...33.49...41.86...29.90................36.62...40.03...39.54...40.18.................40.70...40.19...38.06...46.04................-20.84..-18.38..-28.61..-23.13..............
03....92.58...94.24...91.34...93.61................27.69...20.15...19.82...19.34................33.59...36.94...32.87...35.60.................40.12...39.22...40.41...44.77..................-8.82....-2.07....-1.76....-6.09..............
04....93.51...94.42...89.70...94.01..................9.67...16.16...10.25.....9.65................31.74...32.55...33.25...33.75.................39.61...36.03...40.44...44.10..................12.49.....9.69.....5.77.....6.51..............
05....92.57...91.48...90.57...93.84..................3.31.....6.25.....1.82...-2.32................35.11...35.40...37.37...40.78.................38.92...35.61...38.40...42.84..................15.23....14.23...12.98...12.54..............
06....94.47...91.34...92.28...93.90..................0.72...-3.90....-4.48.-12.41................42.60...47.17...48.18...52.61.................36.84....35.80...39.59...42.40..................14.31....12.27.....8.98...11.30..............
07....94.88...94.70...91.35...95.48.................-2.91...-7.02...-6.92....-9.77................52.50...57.87...52.41...59.30.................36.91...38.60...40.78...40.48....................8.38......5.24.....5.08.....5.48..............
08....98.04...93.84...92.08...96.10................-0.71....-5.05...-7.40....-9.59................52.44...53.29...53.19...57.44.................37.36...38.62...41.21...41.63....................8.96......6.99.....5.08.....6.62..............
09....97.92...90.47...92.97...97.96..................1.90.....0.65...-2.60....-6.86................47.34...43.50...44.06...49.41.................34.89...35.51...38.85...41.26..................13.80....10.81...12.65...14.14..............
10....98.49...88.38...93.30...99.42................11.63.....7.41...-1.96.....4.61................39.56...40.73...42.32...39.79.................35.59...36.98...41.49...41.02..................11.72......3.26...11.44...14.00..............
11....99.40...89.31...95.49...97.95................27.06...12.28...12.75...14.62................37.07...36.07...40.52...41.19.................40.14...40.97...45.45...43.93..................-4.87......0.00...-3.23....-1.79..............
12....97.99...91.72...95.80...95.90................30.92...27.79...19.83...27.51................39.00...39.89...40.78...44.38.................41.36...42.39...46.05...43.14................-13.29..-18.36..-10.85.-19.13..............



=================Daily Net US Demand Model (BCF)================
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22..100.89..100.77..101.20....98.48....98.32....97.12....97.71....694.48
12/09/22....99.44..101.15....98.93....97.89....97.42....98.35....98.18....691.36
12/16/22....99.89..100.16..100.50....98.91....97.54....98.18....98.21....693.40
12/23/22....97.65....98.32....99.40....98.33....95.76....91.37....86.39....667.21
12/30/22....83.89....83.06....84.28....88.90....93.32....97.49....98.13....629.06
01/06/23....97.05....96.18....96.30....96.19....96.91....97.26....97.70....677.58
01/13/23....96.91....97.30....97.70....98.68....97.69....96.11....97.11....681.50
01/20/23....97.72....98.10....97.77....98.16....97.44....95.55....96.69....681.43
01/27/23....95.88....96.18....96.16....94.15....93.76....93.89....94.58....664.61
02/03/23....94.75....95.30....94.20........................................................284.26i
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22....93.50....95.53....94.21....93.44....92.91....92.93....93.58....656.09
02/04/22....93.81....94.22....96.60....93.93....92.22....89.72....86.55....647.05
02/11/22....90.16....91.28....92.80....93.98....92.99....94.32....93.35....648.88
02/18/22....93.90....94.78....96.20....95.76....93.36....92.90....93.18....660.09
02/25/22....94.30....94.93....95.68....94.25....93.71....92.23....91.43....656.54



========Daily US Residential & Commercial Demand Model (BCF)========
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22....18.47....15.05....15.94....15.86....17.33....19.47....25.65....127.77
12/09/22....21.13....24.53....20.31....15.27....17.20....18.28....17.47....134.17
12/16/22....22.97....21.94....22.03....21.53....21.87....27.10....26.77....164.20
12/23/22....36.14....34.98....38.06....36.47....34.37....29.20....25.97....235.19
12/30/22....35.66....34.00....33.29....36.24....41.80....38.09....37.39....256.47
01/06/23....17.59....13.08....12.31....11.75....11.79....13.13....19.16....98.80
01/13/23....26.77....28.10....26.17....23.42....23.69....20.23....18.58....166.96
01/20/23....24.66....24.85....24.91....26.68....25.51....23.38....25.48....175.48
01/27/23....25.65....25.39....22.75....23.21....23.24....23.65....28.36....172.27
02/03/23....26.20....18.72....17.22........................................................62.14
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22....44.15....44.26....39.96....37.09....44.15....44.89....41.52....296.02
02/04/22....41.26....43.29....42.19....36.15....32.79....29.93....26.95....252.55
02/11/22....40.48....37.66....32.61....33.39....28.25....29.85....31.21....233.46
02/18/22....24.72....26.75....33.00....35.58....30.68....24.56....21.62....196.90
02/25/22....33.18....33.82....29.37....22.97....23.63....23.63....31.10....197.70



=============Daily US Generation Demand Model (BCF)=============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22....33.16....35.82....38.15....39.47....42.66....43.43....41.34....274.03
12/09/22....41.36....42.34....45.34....46.30....43.78....44.17....44.17....307.45
12/16/22....42.08....42.40....44.89....43.69....46.45....45.30....44.60....309.41
12/23/22....43.49....45.38....46.89....48.51....47.81....49.30....55.03....336.41
12/30/22....50.38....47.43....46.31....45.24....39.54....39.08....35.07....303.04
01/06/23....34.80....35.47....36.96....37.89....39.65....41.79....42.43....268.99
01/13/23....40.46....40.54....42.34....43.27....41.48....41.70....44.53....294.33
01/20/23....43.80....42.92....41.67....41.74....40.82....41.79....43.22....295.97
01/27/23....43.08....43.41....45.82....45.44....46.34....46.13....43.41....313.62
02/03/23....39.82....41.73....43.02........................................................124.57
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22....44.23....44.42....44.53....46.16....44.37....43.14....43.52....310.38
02/04/22....42.31....41.77....42.05....39.73....41.58....44.21....47.12....298.77
02/11/22....41.25....41.28....44.52....42.94....40.08....37.58....33.71....281.36
02/18/22....36.38....41.71....42.43....37.91....34.98....35.75....40.17....269.34
02/25/22....38.24....35.10....34.31....37.05....41.37....46.01....45.13....277.21
....Estimated sample size: 26%


=============Daily US Industrial Demand Model (BCF)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22....45.98....45.96....45.43....43.88....43.17....45.64....43.63....313.68
12/09/22....43.32....43.02....42.72....42.64....42.16....42.23....43.65....299.74
12/16/22....44.59....44.41....44.07....44.55....43.37....42.47....43.34....306.79
12/23/22....44.57....45.03....44.43....44.89....45.38....44.47....39.84....308.62
12/30/22....39.12....39.81....41.12....42.57....42.38....42.75....42.80....290.55
01/06/23....42.43....43.57....42.97....42.63....42.84....42.73....41.62....298.79
01/13/23....42.73....43.07....42.71....43.62....43.88....43.18....43.01....302.20
01/20/23....44.50....44.81....43.20....41.59....43.09....42.84....40.94....300.98
01/27/23....43.52....44.11....43.87....44.07....44.18....44.37....44.51....308.63
02/03/23....44.37....45.66....45.28........................................................135.31
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22....45.36....44.41....44.67....45.78....45.97....45.96....45.54....317.69
02/04/22....45.44....44.78....44.53....45.76....45.39....46.06....45.77....317.73
02/11/22....45.82....45.62....46.25....46.49....46.76....46.78....46.35....324.06
02/18/22....46.55....46.34....45.98....46.48....45.84....45.11....46.54....322.85
02/25/22....46.02....46.11....46.01....45.78....45.39....45.38....45.91....320.62
....Estimated sample size: 7%


=============Daily US Storage Demand Model (BCF)================
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22......3.27......3.95......1.68.....-0.73....-4.85...-11.42...-12.91....-21.00
12/09/22.....-6.36....-8.73.....-9.45.....-6.31....-5.71.....-6.33.....-7.11....-50.00
12/16/22.....-9.74....-8.58...-10.49...-10.86..-14.14...-16.69...-16.50....-87.00
12/23/22...-26.55..-27.07...-29.97...-31.54..-31.81...-31.60...-34.44..-213.00
12/30/22...-41.27..-38.17...-36.43...-35.15..-30.40...-22.43...-17.13..-221.00
01/06/23......2.23......4.06......4.06......3.92......2.63.....-0.39....-5.51......11.00
01/13/23...-13.05..-14.42...-13.52...-11.62..-11.36.....-9.01.....-9.02....-82.00
01/20/23...-15.25..-14.49...-12.01...-11.86..-11.98...-12.46...-12.96....-91.00
01/27/23...-16.37..-16.72...-16.29...-18.56..-20.00...-20.26...-21.70..-129.91
02/03/23...-15.65..-10.81...-11.31.........................................................-37.77i
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22...-40.25..-37.56...-34.96...-35.59..-41.58...-41.06...-37.00..-268.00
02/04/22...-35.20..-35.62...-32.18...-27.71..-27.54...-30.47...-33.28..-222.00
02/11/22...-37.39..-33.27...-30.57...-28.85..-22.10...-19.89...-17.93..-190.00
02/18/22...-13.75..-20.02...-25.21...-24.22..-18.14...-12.52...-15.15..-129.00
02/25/22...-23.15..-20.10...-14.02...-11.55..-16.69...-22.78...-30.72..-139.00


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