Energy Investing - Daily Gas Flows (Part 6- Supply) - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


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Msg  479324 of 489705  at  1/30/2023 11:06:40 PM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 6- Supply)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


01/30/23 NOTE: Monthly tabulations in both the Part-6 (Supply) and Part-7 (Demand) posts are down tonight
pending modeling changes, and are unchanged from the January 29th. Daily modeling is up to date for the
moment, though all models in the part 6&7 posts are intended to be replaced with new functionality shortly.

=======================================Monthly.US.Dry-Gas.Supply.Models.(BCF/Day)=====================================
............................Net.US.Supply...........................................Production....................................Dry-Gas.Imports...................LNG.Imports.(Revaporized)
_____ 2019__2020__2021__2022__2023___ 2019__2020__2021__2022__2023__ 2019_2020_2021_2022_2023__ 2019__2020__2021__2022__2023
01......95.59...96.41...93.12...93.27...96.16i.......98.41...105.19.102.57.103.74.104.91i....0.88...1.16...2.91...3.46...4.20i.......-3.71.....-9.95...-12.36.-13.94.-12.48i
02......93.61...95.32...90.86...92.98....................97.70...103.73...97.83.103.17...............-0.25...1.30...2.94...3.42.................-3.84.....-9.71.....-9.91.-13.61.............
03......92.58...94.24...91.34...93.61....................97.82...104.47.102.70.104.22...............-0.06...0.07...1.50...3.20.................-5.19...-10.30...-12.86.-13.81.............
04......93.51...94.42...89.70...94.01....................98.85...103.69.101.47.103.77...............-0.54...0.25...1.32...3.35.................-4.81.....-9.52...-13.08.-13.11.............
05......92.57...91.48...90.57...93.84....................99.02.....99.29.101.86.104.12...............-0.77...0.05...0.98...2.99.................-5.68.....-7.86...-12.27.-13.27.............
06......94.47...91.34...92.28...93.90..................100.78.....97.67.102.43.103.03...............-0.84.-0.24...1.71...3.33.................-5.46.....-6.10...-11.86.-12.46.............
07......94.88...94.70...91.35...95.48..................101.37.....98.73.102.12.103.82...............-0.28...0.70...1.98...3.15.................-6.21.....-4.73...-12.76.-11.49.............
08......98.04...93.84...92.08...96.10..................104.12.....99.14.102.87.104.49...............-0.28...0.61...1.85...3.16.................-5.81.....-5.90...-12.63.-11.54.............
09......97.92...90.47...92.97...97.96..................104.52.....97.73.102.50.105.97...............-0.18.-0.28...2.12...3.79.................-6.42.....-6.98...-11.65.-11.80.............
10......98.49...88.38...93.30...99.42..................105.41.....97.36.103.78.106.03...............-0.18...0.15...1.72...4.09.................-6.74.....-9.14...-12.20.-10.69.............
11......99.40...89.31...95.49...97.95..................107.09.....99.84.106.15.106.97.................0.41...1.49...2.33...3.15.................-8.10...-12.01...-12.99.-12.17.............
12......97.99...91.72...95.80...95.90..................106.18...101.90.107.52.103.73.................0.80...2.74...2.18...4.38.................-8.99...-12.92...-13.90.-12.22.............



===============================================Monthly US Dry-Gas Import/Export Models (BCF/Day)==============================================
..............Net US Dry-Gas Imports............................Canadian Imports...............................Canadian.Exports..........................Mexican Imports*........................Mexican Exports*
____ 2019_2020_2021_2022_2023____ 2019__2020__2021__2022__2023___2019_2020_2021_2022_2023___2019_2020_2021_2022_2023__ 2019_2020_2021_2022_2023
01......0.88...1.16...2.91...3.46...4.20i.........8.46.....7.14.....8.53.....8.41.....7.65i......3.03...2.88...2.57...2.42...2.85i.......0.00...0.05...0.18...0.34...1.01i.....4.55...3.15...3.23...2.87...2.13i
02....-0.25...1.30...2.94...3.42....................7.58.....7.51.....8.39.....8.43...................3.32...2.64...2.26...2.38.................0.00...0.07...0.13...0.14................4.51...3.64...3.33...2.77...........
03....-0.06...0.07...1.50...3.20....................7.71.....6.42.....7.41.....7.91...................3.24...2.76...2.91...2.91.................0.00...0.11...0.11...0.65................4.52...3.69...3.12...2.45...........
04....-0.54...0.25...1.32...3.35....................7.02.....5.94.....6.66.....7.87...................3.14...2.46...2.34...2.54.................0.00...0.14...0.04...0.46................4.41...3.37...3.04...2.44...........
05....-0.77...0.05...0.98...2.99....................6.86.....5.88.....6.32.....7.49...................3.08...2.35...2.30...2.37.................0.00...0.17...0.05...0.37................4.56...3.65...3.09...2.49...........
06....-0.84..-0.24...1.71...3.33....................6.58.....5.94.....6.64.....7.55...................2.92...2.47...2.25...2.12.................0.00...0.05...0.16...0.35................4.51...3.76...2.85...2.45...........
07....-0.28...0.70...1.98...3.15....................7.33.....6.72.....6.84.....7.55...................3.09...2.52...2.18...2.13.................0.00...0.12...0.15...0.16................4.52...3.62...2.82...2.42...........
08....-0.28...0.61...1.85...3.16....................7.22.....6.36.....6.86.....7.46...................2.92...2.14...2.21...2.24.................0.00...0.14...0.18...0.28................4.57...3.75...2.98...2.35...........
09....-0.18..-0.28...2.12...3.79....................6.73.....5.58.....6.76.....7.52...................2.62...2.25...2.11...1.96.................0.00...0.16...0.34...0.50................4.30...3.77...2.87...2.27...........
10....-0.18...0.15...1.72...4.09....................6.02.....5.85.....6.28.....7.54...................2.34...2.38...1.90...2.09.................0.00...0.23...0.24...0.93................3.86...3.55...2.90...2.30...........
11......0.41...1.49...2.33...3.15....................7.07.....6.78.....7.80.....7.48...................2.85...2.56...2.75...2.70.................0.00...0.27...0.09...0.69................3.80...3.01...2.81...2.32...........
12......0.80...2.74...2.18...4.38....................7.45.....8.16.....7.77.....8.26...................3.02...2.63...3.03...2.46.................0.01...0.30...0.27...0.85................3.65...3.09...2.83...2.28...........




================Daily Net US Supply Model (BCF/Day)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22..100.89..100.77..101.20....98.48....98.32....97.12....97.71....694.48
12/09/22....99.44..101.15....98.93....97.89....97.42....98.35....98.18....691.36
12/16/22....99.89..100.16..100.50....98.91....97.54....98.18....98.21....693.40
12/23/22....97.65....98.32....99.40....98.33....95.76....91.37....86.39....667.21
12/30/22....83.89....83.06....84.28....88.90....93.32....97.49....98.13....629.06
01/06/23....97.05....96.18....96.30....96.19....96.91....97.26....97.70....677.58
01/13/23....96.91....97.30....97.70....98.68....97.69....96.11....97.11....681.50
01/20/23....97.72....98.10....97.77....98.16....97.44....95.55....96.69....681.43
01/27/23....95.88....96.18....96.16....94.15....93.76....93.89....94.58....664.61
02/03/23....94.75....95.30....94.20........................................................284.26i
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22....93.50....95.53....94.21....93.44....92.91....92.93....93.58....656.09
02/04/22....93.81....94.22....96.60....93.93....92.22....89.72....86.55....647.05
02/11/22....90.16....91.28....92.80....93.98....92.99....94.32....93.35....648.88
02/18/22....93.90....94.78....96.20....95.76....93.36....92.90....93.18....660.09
02/25/22....94.30....94.93....95.68....94.25....93.71....92.23....91.43....656.54



================Daily US Production Model (BCF/Day)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22..108.69..108.83..109.24..108.40..107.69..106.59..106.99....756.44
12/09/22..108.06..108.51..108.10..107.00..105.71..106.85..107.34....751.57
12/16/22..107.95..108.45..108.88..107.11..106.29..107.49..107.25....753.43
12/23/22..106.53..106.84..107.28..106.56..105.03..100.76....91.08....724.07
12/30/22....86.45....86.07....88.52....93.78..100.11..105.19..107.05....667.17
01/06/23..105.86..104.80..104.88..105.53..106.23..105.87..105.83....738.99
01/13/23..105.19..105.21..105.98..106.82..105.78..105.19..105.56....739.74
01/20/23..105.52..105.22..105.38..105.44..105.53..105.16..105.49....737.76
01/27/23..104.58..104.69..104.72..102.42..102.56..102.26..103.00....724.22
02/03/23..103.14..104.40..103.59........................................................311.12i
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22..102.90..103.58..103.85..103.92..103.12..103.22..103.96....724.56
02/04/22..103.44..103.95..105.38..104.14..102.49....99.65....95.43....714.49
02/11/22....98.82..100.62..101.69..103.30..104.08..104.95..105.15....718.62
02/18/22..104.93..105.35..106.31..105.60..104.52..105.03..103.84....735.58
02/25/22..104.79..104.41..105.13..103.36..103.42..101.94..101.37....724.43
....Estimated sample size: 72%


============Daily US Net Dry-Gas Imports Model (BCF/Day)===========
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22......2.98......3.54......3.26......2.58......3.07......3.68......3.63....22.74
12/09/22......3.83......5.12......3.61......2.43......2.50......3.32......3.69....24.51
12/16/22......4.31......4.32......4.41......4.49......4.16......4.14......4.24....30.07
12/23/22......4.02......4.26......3.83......4.08......4.05......3.92......5.98....30.14
12/30/22......7.42......6.77......7.29......6.87......5.05......4.04......3.16....40.60
01/06/23......3.29......3.23......3.12......2.67......3.25......3.97......4.40....23.93
01/13/23......4.45......4.79......4.47......4.48......4.35......3.76......4.03....30.33
01/20/23......4.89......5.38......4.76......4.35......3.74......3.20......3.98....30.30
01/27/23......4.16......4.12......4.07......4.16......4.02......4.33......4.38....29.23
02/03/23......3.99......3.13......3.00........................................................10.12
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22......4.17......3.86......3.45......3.44......4.09......3.56......3.76....26.34
02/04/22......4.28......4.02......3.89......3.19......3.29......3.93......5.09....27.69
02/11/22......4.93......4.39......4.67......4.21......3.04......2.83......2.63....26.69
02/18/22......3.23......3.56......3.58......3.60......2.96......2.08......3.54....22.53
02/25/22......3.61......3.29......2.89......2.67......2.10......3.65......3.51....21.72
....Estimated sample size: 120%


===========Daily US LNG Imports (As Revaporized, BCF/Day)===========
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22...-10.79..-11.60...-11.30...-12.50..-12.45...-13.14...-12.92..-84.70
12/09/22...-12.45..-12.48...-12.78...-11.54..-10.79...-11.82...-12.85..-84.71
12/16/22...-12.36..-12.61...-12.79...-12.69..-12.91...-13.45...-13.28..-90.10
12/23/22...-12.89..-12.78...-11.71...-12.31..-13.32...-13.31...-10.67..-86.99
12/30/22.....-9.98....-9.77...-11.53...-11.76..-11.85...-11.74...-12.08..-78.70
01/06/23...-12.10..-11.86...-11.70...-12.01..-12.56...-12.58...-12.53..-85.34
01/13/23...-12.73..-12.70...-12.75...-12.62..-12.44...-12.84...-12.49..-88.58
01/20/23...-12.69..-12.51...-12.37...-11.63..-11.83...-12.81...-12.78..-86.63
01/27/23...-12.86..-12.63...-12.62...-12.43..-12.81...-12.70...-12.79..-88.84
02/03/23...-12.37..-12.23...-12.38.......................................................-36.98
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22...-13.57..-11.91...-13.09...-13.92..-14.31...-13.86...-14.15..-94.80
02/04/22...-13.91..-13.75...-12.68...-13.41..-13.56...-13.87...-13.97..-95.13
02/11/22...-13.60..-13.73...-13.56...-13.53..-14.14...-13.45...-14.42..-96.44
02/18/22...-14.25..-14.12...-13.69...-13.44..-14.11...-14.21...-14.20..-98.02
02/25/22...-14.10..-12.77...-12.34...-11.78..-11.81...-13.37...-13.45..-89.61
....Estimated sample size: 81%


============Daily US Net Dry-Gas Imports Model (BCF/Day)===========
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22......2.98......3.54......3.26......2.58......3.07......3.68......3.63....22.74
12/09/22......3.83......5.12......3.61......2.43......2.50......3.32......3.69....24.51
12/16/22......4.31......4.32......4.41......4.49......4.16......4.14......4.24....30.07
12/23/22......4.02......4.26......3.83......4.08......4.05......3.92......5.98....30.14
12/30/22......7.42......6.77......7.29......6.87......5.05......4.04......3.16....40.60
01/06/23......3.29......3.23......3.12......2.67......3.25......3.97......4.40....23.93
01/13/23......4.45......4.79......4.47......4.48......4.35......3.76......4.03....30.33
01/20/23......4.89......5.38......4.76......4.35......3.74......3.20......3.98....30.30
01/27/23......4.16......4.12......4.07......4.16......4.02......4.33......4.38....29.23
02/03/23......3.99......3.13......3.00........................................................10.12
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22......4.17......3.86......3.45......3.44......4.09......3.56......3.76....26.34
02/04/22......4.28......4.02......3.89......3.19......3.29......3.93......5.09....27.69
02/11/22......4.93......4.39......4.67......4.21......3.04......2.83......2.63....26.69
02/18/22......3.23......3.56......3.58......3.60......2.96......2.08......3.54....22.53
02/25/22......3.61......3.29......2.89......2.67......2.10......3.65......3.51....21.72
....Estimated sample size: 120%


==============Daily US Imports From Canada (BCF/Day)==============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22......7.95......7.90......8.01......7.75......7.96......8.15......7.95....55.68
12/09/22......8.00......8.16......7.95......6.97......7.21......7.68......8.44....54.41
12/16/22......8.40......8.31......8.71......8.76......8.54......8.53......8.66....59.91
12/23/22......8.40......8.47......8.37......8.08......8.13......8.24......8.88....58.57
12/30/22......9.61......8.93......9.34......9.09......8.23......7.93......7.04....60.17
01/06/23......7.01......7.06......7.08......7.07......7.39......7.62......7.80....51.04
01/13/23......8.01......8.09......8.12......8.19......8.13......7.49......7.56....55.58
01/20/23......8.01......8.28......8.11......7.88......7.63......7.47......7.78....55.17
01/27/23......7.80......7.71......7.90......7.93......7.92......7.89......7.78....54.93
02/03/23......7.86......6.04......6.10........................................................20.01
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22......8.66......8.69......8.58......8.60......8.81......8.63......8.57....60.54
02/04/22......8.86......8.85......8.82......8.54......8.29......8.51......8.94....60.80
02/11/22......8.95......8.83......8.86......8.52......8.35......8.28......8.17....59.96
02/18/22......8.23......8.46......8.57......8.68......8.25......7.65......8.68....58.51
02/25/22......8.54......8.44......8.19......8.15......7.43......8.45......8.60....57.79
....Estimated sample size: 115%


===============Daily US Exports To Canada (BCF/Day)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22......3.06......3.08......3.04......3.05......2.81......2.86......2.91....20.81
12/09/22......2.93......1.86......2.85......2.92......3.04......3.06......3.06....19.71
12/16/22......3.13......3.10......3.10......3.09......3.01......3.09......2.87....21.40
12/23/22......2.80......2.75......2.75......2.73......2.66......2.73......0.73....17.15
12/30/22......0.33......0.40......0.38......0.43......1.81......2.78......2.96......9.09
01/06/23......2.99......3.05......3.02......3.03......3.06......2.96......2.93....21.04
01/13/23......2.90......2.86......2.87......2.88......2.92......2.93......3.04....20.40
01/20/23......2.85......2.94......2.88......2.88......2.88......2.92......2.84....20.19
01/27/23......2.87......2.88......2.83......2.81......2.85......2.90......2.83....19.97
02/03/23......2.95......1.78......1.78..........................................................6.50
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22......1.88......2.37......2.44......2.37......1.88......2.31......2.33....15.57
02/04/22......2.08......2.16......2.16......2.49......2.25......1.88......1.26....14.28
02/11/22......1.42......1.72......1.67......1.98......2.78......2.78......2.90....15.25
02/18/22......2.53......2.32......2.45......2.54......2.84......2.82......2.46....17.96
02/25/22......2.44......2.67......2.61......2.67......2.65......2.33......2.32....17.68
....Estimated sample size: 205%


==============Daily US Imports From Mexico (BCF/Day)==============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22......0.43......0.92......0.53......0.39......0.39......0.64......0.77......4.07
12/09/22......0.93......0.99......0.66......0.58......0.52......0.88......0.72......5.29
12/16/22......1.34......1.38......1.07......1.15......1.06......1.02......0.78......7.80
12/23/22......0.78......0.75......0.65......0.97......0.83......0.81......0.46......5.25
12/30/22......0.56......0.70......0.67......0.55......0.68......1.05......1.15......5.37
01/06/23......1.34......1.21......1.18......0.81......0.81......1.05......1.47......7.87
01/13/23......1.35......1.49......1.25......1.21......1.10......1.00......1.35......8.76
01/20/23......1.63......1.84......1.57......1.36......0.92......0.69......1.02......9.03
01/27/23......1.23......1.29......1.22......1.00......0.86......1.16......1.17......7.93
02/03/23......1.14......1.02......1.05..........................................................3.21
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22......0.12......0.19......0.16......0.10......0.03......0.02......0.27......0.88
02/04/22......0.26......0.08......0.02......0.02......0.05......0.19......0.29......0.92
02/11/22......0.13......0.14......0.43......0.30......0.13......0.04......0.03......1.21
02/18/22......0.23......0.03......0.16......0.04......0.21......0.04......0.04......0.75
02/25/22......0.20......0.16......0.15......0.06......0.11......0.15......0.13......0.95
....Estimated sample size: 8%


===============Daily US Exports To Mexico (BCF/Day)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
12/02/22......2.34......2.20......2.24......2.51......2.48......2.25......2.19....16.20
12/09/22......2.17......2.17......2.15......2.21......2.19......2.18......2.41....15.48
12/16/22......2.30......2.28......2.27......2.32......2.43......2.31......2.32....16.24
12/23/22......2.36......2.21......2.44......2.23......2.25......2.40......2.63....16.53
12/30/22......2.42......2.46......2.34......2.34......2.06......2.16......2.08....15.85
01/06/23......2.07......1.99......2.12......2.17......1.89......1.75......1.94....13.93
01/13/23......2.01......1.93......2.03......2.04......1.96......1.80......1.83....13.60
01/20/23......1.91......1.81......2.04......2.02......1.93......2.03......1.97....13.71
01/27/23......2.01......2.00......2.22......1.97......1.91......1.81......1.74....13.66
02/03/23......2.07......2.15......2.37..........................................................6.59
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/28/22......2.73......2.65......2.86......2.88......2.86......2.79......2.74....19.51
02/04/22......2.76......2.75......2.79......2.88......2.81......2.89......2.88....19.76
02/11/22......2.74......2.86......2.96......2.63......2.65......2.71......2.68....19.23
02/18/22......2.70......2.61......2.70......2.58......2.66......2.79......2.72....18.77
02/25/22......2.70......2.63......2.84......2.87......2.79......2.61......2.90....19.34
....Estimated sample size: 81%


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