“Our 2022 drilling success positions us to continue to deliver both year-over-year production growth and strong free-cash flow generation in 2023,” said Stephen Loukas, Obsidian Energy’s Interim President and CEO. “Since introducing our 2023 preliminary forecast, we have seen a decline in oil prices, continued service cost inflation, and widening of heavy oil differentials, as well as a decline in our share price such that it trades materially below intrinsic value. Accordingly, our 2023 strategy now focuses on a balance between several components, including capital for development and exploration/appraisal wells, continued debt reduction and return of capital to shareholders via a share buyback, while also preserving acquisition optionality. The majority of our 2023 capital is allocated to core development but includes a component to further delineate our large land base, mainly in the Clearwater formation in the Peace River area. Our program optionality allows us to quickly adjust depending on well results, changes in commodity prices, and acquisition opportunities. We look forward to executing on our plans to create future value for our shareholders and the Company.”
Stephen Loukas continued, “We had an active year in 2022 with a successful capital program that was expanded mid-year and includes the acquisition of additional land in the Peace River area. These results, combined with higher commodity price forecasts, led to a substantial increase in our reserve values and volumes over 2021, replacing reserves across all categories. This represents the sixth year in a row of greater than 100 percent reserve replacement on total proved (“1P“) reserves and total proved plus probable (“2P“) reserves, excluding acquisitions and dispositions, and economic factors. As a result, our proved developed producing (“PDP“) and 1P reserve net present values increased by $438 million to $1.6 billion, and $700 million to $2.1 billion, respectively, at December 31, 2022 (before tax, discounted at 10 percent).”
2023 GUIDANCE
With a strong start to our 2023 development program, Obsidian Energy expects to grow average production to approximately 32,000 to 33,500 boe/d in 2023 – a seven percent increase from 2022 at the mid-point. While still growing production, we are electing to moderate our capital spending and growth profile in this environment of increasing service costs and WTI crude oil prices, which are approximately US$20 per barrel lower from mid-year 2022 levels. At this time, we prefer to redirect capital previously earmarked for development towards the initiation of a normal course issuer bid (“NCIB“).
We are pleased with our 2022 results, which will be announced in February and are reflected in the increases in our 2022 Reserve Report. Our fourth quarter 2022 capital program remained active despite extreme cold weather in December that hampered operations and production. Fourth quarter capital was approximately $97 million, bringing full year capital slightly below our 2022 guidance at $319 million (including the Peace River gas plant acquisition in September). Production averaged 31,742 boe/d for the fourth quarter, bringing full year 2022 production to 30,682 boe/d, which is slightly below the low end of guidance of 30,800 boe/d due to the impact of the cold weather on operations and facilities. Concerning wells spud in 2022, three wells (2.9 net) were rig released in January 2023 and eight (7.8) net wells are expected to be brought on production in 2023.
During 2023, the Company is planning between $260 and $270 million in capital expenditures for development and exploration/appraisal activities, plus an additional $26 to $28 million in decommissioning expenditures that accelerates our asset retirement obligations (decommissioning expenditures are higher in 2023 than in 2022 as the Alberta Energy Regulator increased industry spend targets for oil and gas companies in Alberta). Capital expenditures are primarily focused on development wells in all areas and incorporate the impact of inflationary pressures on drilling consumables and service costs, which were approximately 30 percent higher at the end of 2022 compared to 2021. Obsidian Energy has contracted rigs and services for the first half 2023 program to minimize the impact of future inflation. Our active first quarter 2023 development program will continue the momentum from the 2022 program, resulting in production growth and expected strong free cash flow. Should commodity prices be favourable, we are well positioned to act on opportunities and adjust the program upward during the second half of the year.