Risky nailed it, except for 13mm bbls day from US.
My take is lessons learned another 1mm day sustained add-on is not feasible at these current price levels. Captive fields outside of Tx, Ok and La. will not be able to get enough long haul pipe access, plus fields in Dakotas are turning gassy and Prudoe Bay remains on decline and new GOM is now out of sync so need 5 yrs plus for new big finds. At $125-$150 bbl oil may get to 13mm day peak, but will be short lived as will be achieved in steep decline technology plays.
Mexico in decline and do not expect much new help from Canada cross border pipe to US too political for much relief