Russian formations are getting chopped up in a manner that is breathtaking. For older Americans, what happened in the last few months in Ukraine was as though the Tet Offensive in Vietnam was successful, and the NVA had held Hue and the other cities. The Russians badly wanted to keep Kherson, and were beaten, first in the east, and then in Kherson - they are not retreating because they want to across the Dnipro River - they are retreating to avoid more losses of big units. I remember as a kid going to funerals of American servicemen and wondering for a year if my brother would come home in 1969 - but those losses were nothing compared to what the Russians are enduring, and you can't hide that. If President Biden has the guts, he can break Putin right now, and that debate will be driving the debate on oil exports from Russia - if the Europeans and the Russians go for Putin's Jugular, oil prices will rise as oil revenue is denied. If Biden and the Europeans let Putin survive - we may see prices drop as oil and gas exports are allowed to lower inflation. I think it is as simple as that.
If we give weapons to the Ukrainians, they will continue to kill Russians to drive them out.