Energy Investing - BULLISH on Energy Bearish on overall Markets I ve got 3 weeks for another PLAN - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


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Msg  452376 of 467394  at  10/1/2022 3:08:37 PM  by

ablebonus


 In response to msg 452348 by  TODD1956
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Re: BULLISH on Energy Bearish on overall Markets I ve got 3 weeks for another PLAN

 Todd are you a closet Elliott Waver?  Your calls have been great. 
 
I'm usually hesitant to post market stuff on this board but as you noted we're so far off the rails who cares.
 
Regardless of how we open Monday (gap down on CS bailout for example) I expect a rally all week up to around the 3790 SPX gap. That's over 200 points up by Friday, a 5-6% market rally. Enough to turn the fearful greedy and re-invigorate the dip-buyers.
 
I bought energy and a few longs last week for this week's run. The gold/oil analog says Thursday Oct 6 is a peak for oil, so I intend to sell energy Thursday (matches nicely with a market rally). I will buy back energy on Oct 20th for the oil rally into year-end.
 
Starting Oct 10th I expect a sharp drop in equities very similar to the 535 point SPX drop from 9/12 to 9/30 which should end around Halloween. Then a Nov rally for 2 weeks and a selloff into year-end, under 3000 SPX. That would coincide with a DXY peak around 120 the first week of January.
 
I've been putting some of my recent equity put profits into PSLV and PHYS rather than just cash. I am watching the COMEX daily stats with interest and can envision a pullback in the dollar at any time that spurs a PM rally.
 
Like you I've been heavily into puts (SPX and QQQ plus UVXY calls) that were dated for late Sep, early Oct, late Oct, and mid Nov.  I closed out all the short term and most of the long term last week but will buy back end of this week to maximize the above market playbook.  I maintain my UVXY calls as a hedge against an absolute collapse that doesn't follow the EW playbook. 


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