OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 10-month intraweek low but then turning around and closing green. Unfortunately for the bulls, the positive reversal was not conclusive or indicative enough given that the green weekly close was only $.96 cents above the previous week’s close and Oil closed in the middle of the week’s trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week’s low at 76.28 or above last week’s high at 82.94. Evidently, the traders are waiting to see how October starts out in the index market before making any decisions on what Oil is going to do. The bears remain with the edge, as the failure signal given the previous week when the 83.76 weekly close support was broken was not negated. On a daily closing basis, any close above 82.15 would give a small edge to the bulls, while a daily close below 76.71 would give added ammunition to the bears. At this time, there is no probability number that can be given to either side.
